Question about Accuweather/Joe B.

Juno Beach · #1 Postby **Juno Beach** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:47 pm

...Didn't he correctly predict the whole Ivan off the east coast of NC, down to FL, then across into the Gulf thing? (I have to admit, I laughed at that one, being the know-nothing that I am).

Also, their latest forecast map seems to move FL landfall South. Is this true? I can't find an image of their previous track.

#2 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:53 pm

Landfall was near Daytona on the AM map. Their
track has moved significantly S.!

chris_fit · #3 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:53 pm

He did do well on the Ivan reformation thing.

Mister Popps · #4 Postby **Mister Popps** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:55 pm

I was thinking the same thing about the Ivan path. Seem to think he said Jeanne would be a GOM storm when all was said and done. <p> I also laughed when I heard the senario of Ivan's return. BUT this season has been unreal for us Floridians.

djti · #5 Postby **djti** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:56 pm

his original track for jeanne was a straight west shot across florida and into the gulf...ignoring all reasonable signs of the ne-e turn that of course took place.

gotta give him something for the ivan thing though i guess (stopped clock theory)

Juno Beach · #6 Postby **Juno Beach** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:01 pm

djti wrote:his original track for jeanne was a straight west shot across florida and into the gulf...ignoring all reasonable signs of the ne-e turn that of course took place.

But that was before the stalls and the loop-de-do's in the Atlantic, wasn't it? I don't think anyone did/would/could predict all that, could they? Back to my question, his previous call was north of THIS, no?

#7 Postby **amawea** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:05 pm

Didn't he correctly predict the whole Ivan off the east coast of NC, down to FL, then across into the Gulf thing?

Yes he did.

Juno Beach · #8 Postby **Juno Beach** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:16 pm

amawea wrote:
Didn't he correctly predict the whole Ivan off the east coast of NC, down to FL, then across into the Gulf thing?

Yes he did.

Well, he IS a Nittany Lion...hopefully we can get something right this weekend and bring home a win from Wisconsin for Joe - Paterno, that is, not Bastardi!

#9 Postby **Steve** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:35 pm

A lot of people like to credit Joe for that forecast (and bashed me for posting it when I did as if it was my own), but it was the UK Met that was the model supporting the whole Ivan return scenario. I don't recall him crediting the UKMet as the source. He kind of played it off like his own. At the time, he was fixated on something getting back into the Gulf (be it Jeanne, Ivan's ghost, both or neither). He was also fixated on the New Orleans 1947 storm and Hurricane Betsy since he was contrasting them with what would happen with Ivan the first time around.

For Jeanne, he got the loop idea right. I think his original idea (though a week late) was that it would be a Cat 2 or 3 near the Bahamas, would hit OFF of its peak, and should pose a threat to the US East Coast (and then possibly the Gulf of Mexico). But that seems like more than a week ago.

Steve

Question about Accuweather/Joe B.

Question about Accuweather/Joe B.

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