Accuweather 3 PM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 23, 2004 2:39 p.m.


Tropical Storm Ivan, as of 1 PM CDT (2 PM EDT), was centered at 29.3 north, 92.8 west, or about 50 miles southeast of Cameron, Louisiana. Ivan is moving toward the northwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph. The minimum central pressure is 1003 millibars (29.62 inches). Some fluctuations in intensity are likely as the storm moves toward the coast. It is expected to make landfall this evening near or just west of the mouth of the Sabine River. Tropical-storm-force winds will certainly be found near the point of landfall; heavy rain seems to be the main threat from resurrected Ivan, especially since this system may stall out, or even drift southward through eastern Texas this weekend. Currently, tropical storm warnings are in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana westward, to Sargent, Texas.

As of 2 PM EDT, Hurricane Jeanne was centered at 25.6 north, 69.7 west, or about 465 miles east of Great Abaco Island. Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph. The estimated central pressure is 966 millibars (28.53 inches). The storm is beginning its westward trek as the upper level ridge is now building over top of the storm over the western Atlantic. A westerly track is foreseen for the next couple of days. Over the weekend we then expect Jeanne to make a northward turn. The question is still, how far west does the hurricane get, before it makes that northward turn? Our current thinking is that Jeanne makes a run at the east coast of Florida later Saturday and Saturday night, then turns north over Florida. As Jeanne moves west, the waters are somewhat warmer, and the upper-level pattern favors some strengthening. Currently, a tropical storm watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Lisa, as of 11 AM EDT, was centered at 12.1 north, 41.7 west, or about 1215 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Lisa is drifting slowly west-southwestward at 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at near 45 mph. The central pressure is estimated at 1000 millibars (29.53 inches). Lisa is in the process of merging with a tropical disturbance nearby to the east-southeast. As powerful Hurricane Karl continues to move away, Lisa will have a chance to get better organized.

As of 11 AM EDT, Hurricane Karl was centered at 33.8 north, 43.8 west, or about 980 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Karl is moving north-northeast at 28 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 120 mph. The estimated central pressure is 955 millibars (28.20 inches). Over the next 24 hours, Karl will encounter more shear and cooler waters, and thus weaken and start to become extratropical.

[Juno Beach]

They have it speeding up a bit, no? I like early Sunday better than late Saturday.

B*tch Jeanne! Let me watch some damn college football!