Thursday September 23, 2004 5:30pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Jeanne, as I expected is 90 kt, 12 hours after I forecast it. That was an easy forecast win... can I nail the track?
Hurricane Jeanne is caught under a ridge of high pressure, therefore, I expect her to move just about due west for the next 48 hours, which will SLAM the northwest Bahamas. Then a west-northwest track into Florida near the general area around West Palm Beach. After that, as the anti-cyclone elongates, I expect a track north, and then north-northeast into the South Carolina coast.
As for intensity, the enviornment is favorable for Jeanne to become a major hurricane. I expect Jeanne to do so in 24 hours, and get even a little stronger by 36 hours. After that, there may be some SLIGHT shear. While I do not expect Jeanne to weaken, I will be conservative and forecast a very slight weakening RIGHT before landfall. After that, I expect weakening. However, since I expect the center to briefly move back over water between 96-120 hours, I keep it as a hurricane in South Carolina. I do not expect strengthening at that time, just holding that intensity though. So a category 3 in Florida, and a category 1 in South Carolina. That is my forecast on Hurricane Jeanne. To quote the late, great John Hope, "That's it for this time."
12 HRS-- 25.6 N--- 71.7 W-- 95 kt
24 HRS-- 25.7 N-- 74.0 W-- 100 kt
36 HRS-- 25.8 N-- 76.2 W-- 105 kt
48 HRS-- 26.1 N-- 78.2 W-- 105 kt
72 HRS-- 27.0 N-- 80.2 W-- 100 kt (INLAND)
96 HRS-- 29.8 N-- 81.2 W-- 70 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 32.9 N-- 80.2 W-- 70 kt (INLAND)
