5am Jeanne Advisory/Discuss. Hurricane Watch in florida...

[ericinmia]

Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 43


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 24, 2004



at 5 am AST...0900z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the northwestern Bahamas...including the
Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand
Bahama Island...and New Providence. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the central Bahamas...including Cat
Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area in the next 24 hours.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...a Hurricane Watch is in effect along the East
Coast of Florida from Florida City to St. Augustine...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible in the watch area in the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor
the progress of Jeanne.
We are reminded that from Sundown tonight until Sundown Saturday is
yom kippur...a solemn jewish Holiday. Your jewish neighbors in the
watch and warning areas observing yom kippur will not be listening
to radios or watching TV...and may not be aware of the hurricane
situation.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 26.1 north...longitude 71.6 west or about 340
miles... 550 km...east of great abaco island in the northwestern
Bahamas.

Jeanne is moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed
during the next 24 hours. This motion could bring the center of
Jeanne near the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next
24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 969 mb...28.61 inches.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible along the track of
Jeanne.
Tides will gradually be rising in the warned area during the next 24
hours. Additionally...dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by
large swells generated by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible elsewhere
along the southeastern U.S. Coast and the northwest and central
Bahamas for the next few days.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...26.1 N... 71.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 969 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven


$$

[ericinmia]

[ericinmia]

Track was nudged a tiny bit north of where it was at 11pm.

This is disconcerting... i had forgotten about that.

We are reminded that from Sundown tonight until Sundown Saturday is
yom kippur...a solemn jewish Holiday. Your jewish neighbors in the
watch and warning areas observing yom kippur will not be listening
to radios or watching TV...and may not be aware of the hurricane
situation.

-Eric

[FLLuckyAgain]

There goes the Treasure Coast...Big time trouble...

[Guest]

So where is the eye going to make landfall?

[ericinmia]

Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 43


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 24, 2004



the intensity of Jeanne is a bit of a puzzle this morning. An Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured a central pressure
of 969 mb...which would normally support winds of near 90 kt.
However...the maximum flight-level winds reported by the aircraft
at 700 mb were only 74 kt...which would support closer to 65 kt
surface winds. Post-eclipse satellite images show some cooling of
the cloud tops over the south quadrant...but also show a much less
defined eye. Based mainly on the central pressure...the initial
intensity is set to 85 kt. However...this may be generous.
The initial motion is now 270/7. Water vapor imagery shows that a
deep-layer anticyclone over the eastern United States is now
centered near the Delmarva Peninsula. Large-scale models indicate
this system will continue to shift to the southeast and elongate
southward with time. This pattern evolution should keep Jeanne on
a general westward course for 36-48 hr...followed by a turn toward
the northwest and eventual recurvature into the westerlies. The
timing of the turn is still in question...as the GFDL has shifted
far enough to the east to miss the Florida coast...while the NOGAPS
drives Jeanne across southern Florida to the Gulf of Mexico before
recurvature. The other dynamical models are between these two
extremes. The official forecast track keeps Jeanne on the left side
of the guidance during the first 36-48 hr...as the ridge to the
north may not allow as much northward motion as shown by the GFDL
and GFS. After that...the track follows the model consensus.
It should be noted that the UKMET again appears to be too fast in
the first 12 hr.
The aircraft data indicates that Jeanne currently has a broad wind
field...with a radius of maximum winds of 35-45 nm. Between that
and the cold upwelling water the hurricane is currently over...
little change in strength is likely for 12 hr or so. Beyond that
time...Jeanne should move over 82f water and reach 83-84f water by
36 hr. This could allow for more significant strengthening if the
storm structure has reorganized by that time...and the intensity
forecast calls for Jeanne to reach 100 kt intensity in 48 hr. This
is slightly higher than both ships and the GFDL. After 48 hr...a
combination of increasing southwesterly vertical shear and land
interaction should produce steady weakening.
The forecast track and wind radii require a Hurricane Warning for
the northwestern Bahamas...a Tropical Storm Warning for the central
Bahamas...and a Hurricane Watch for portions of the Florida East
Coast at this time.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 24/0900z 26.1n 71.6w 85 kt
12hr VT 24/1800z 26.1n 73.1w 85 kt
24hr VT 25/0600z 26.2n 75.4w 90 kt
36hr VT 25/1800z 26.6n 77.6w 95 kt
48hr VT 26/0600z 27.1n 79.5w 100 kt
72hr VT 27/0600z 30.0n 81.5w 80 kt...inland
96hr VT 28/0600z 34.0n 78.5w 50 kt...inland
120hr VT 29/0600z 39.5n 69.5w 35 kt...over water


$$

[FLLuckyAgain]

So where is the eye going to make landfall?

Sundays dot looks like Martin PSL if you draw a imaginary curve..

[guanaskip]

Based on models and discussion, looks like "trend" is now more right and north. NHC is to left of everyone. Hopefully next 12-24 actual will move it a little more north to avoid direct hit to Abaco. What do you pros think--possibility or -removed-?

[arlwx]

Warnings for Jeanne now up...HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
535 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

...HURRICANE JEANNE ADVANCES TOWARD FLORIDA...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE CONTENT OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
BEACH.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...
EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JEANNE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST AT 8 MPH AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN
THE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY AS JEANNE APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. IF JEANNE ACCELERATES TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND
TRACKS MORE NORTHWEST HURRICANE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN AND HURRICANE KIT. MARINE
INTERESTS IN NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY WISH TO SECURE PROPERTY
WHICH COULD FLOOD.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE
HEIGHT OF NORMAL TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD STAY IN PORT. HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE
TODAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. BEACH EROSION WILL
CONTINUE TO WORSEN ON SATURDAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
HURRICANE JEANNE WILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT MOVES
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE PATH COULD
SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 AM EDT...OR EARLIER SHOULD
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

[ColdFront77]

Excerpt from Advisory #43 issued at 5:00 AM EDT, Friday, September 24, 2004:

WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE LISTENING
TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE HURRICANE
SITUATION.

An interesting angle on the situation.

Our Jewish friends can't listen to the radio and/or listen/watch television after their non-Jewish
friends, neighbors (and even family members) make them aware of the approaching hurricane?

[StrongWind]

Excerpt from Advisory #43 issued at 5:00 AM EDT, Friday, September 24, 2004:

WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE LISTENING
TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE HURRICANE
SITUATION.

Interesting situation, indeed. Our Jewish friends can't listen to radio or television after their non-Jewish
friends, neighbors (and even family members) make them aware of the approaching hurricane?

Actually, they can listen. They just can't turn anything on or off. Local rabbi had been advising to leave a radio turned on to a news station so they could monitor the situation.

SW

[ColdFront77]

So, if this were 24 hours in the future than they wouldn't be able to even turn a TV or radio on. I suppose moving the volume setting is alright if when they turn it on it's too low or too high...

Please understand I am not being rude and/or sarcastic.

[StrongWind]

As I understood it once, they are not allowed doing anything considered to be "work." This is variously interpreted to include such mundane tasks as turning on/off a light switch and cooking dinner. So I would assume adjusting a volume control might be similarly construed.