What will tampa feel from jeanne??

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Noah
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What will tampa feel from jeanne??

#1 Postby Noah » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:51 am

Im worn out and weary from running from hurricanes.
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Rainband

#2 Postby Rainband » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:52 am

too early to tell. Hopefully by tonight or tomorrow things will become clearer :roll:
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Tampa NWS Haz. WX Outlook

#3 Postby TampaFl » Fri Sep 24, 2004 11:04 am

Hope this helps. Of course this will change!

000
FLUS42 KTBW 240908
HWOTBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
504 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

FLZ039-042-048>051-055-060>062-065-241500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-
PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA-
504 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FLORIDA'S SUNCOAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

HEAV...FRINGES OF HURRICANE JEANNE MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...

HURRICANE JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON...OR COME VERY CLOSE
TO...FLORIDA'S EAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR INTO THE PENINSULA THE STORM WILL EXTEND. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON A SMALL STORM WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK ALONG OR
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER EXPOSED AREAS AND NEAR TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BY
SUNDAY...WINDS MAY BLOW AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. SUCH WINDS COULD PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND POORLY
ANCHORED STRUCTURES.

...RAINFALL...
IEST RAINFALL FROM JEANNE WILL FALL ALONG FLORIDA'S ATLANTIC
COAST. FEEDER BANDS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN COULD DROP
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY
PERSISTENT BANDS...BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE OR NO FLOODING WOULD RESULT.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A THREAT OF SMALL...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES WELL AHEAD OF
JEANNE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN STRONGER FEEDER
BANDS.

...STORM SURGE...
THE PREDOMINANT FLOW AROUND JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS UNFAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STORM
SURGE ON THE SUNCOAST.

...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FOR MORE ON HURRICANE JEANNE...SEE
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
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thank you!

#4 Postby Noah » Fri Sep 24, 2004 11:16 am

thank you!
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TPACane04

#5 Postby TPACane04 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:04 pm

that piece from NWS Ruskin is predicated on Jeanne taking the current track as indicated by NHC....keep an eye on any possible W intrusion by Jeanne...50 miles more inland and/or storm path just S of Tampa could alter the affects dramatically...most guidance keeps the past East of Tpa, but we still have 48 hours to watch.

east hillsborough and Polk co. should see more impacts based on current track
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Re: Tampa NWS Haz. WX Outlook

#6 Postby Noah » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:42 pm

TampaFl wrote:Hope this helps. Of course this will change!

000
FLUS42 KTBW 240908
HWOTBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
504 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

FLZ039-042-048>051-055-060>062-065-241500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-
PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA-
504 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FLORIDA'S SUNCOAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

HEAV...FRINGES OF HURRICANE JEANNE MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...

HURRICANE JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON...OR COME VERY CLOSE
TO...FLORIDA'S EAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR INTO THE PENINSULA THE STORM WILL EXTEND. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON A SMALL STORM WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK ALONG OR
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER EXPOSED AREAS AND NEAR TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BY
SUNDAY...WINDS MAY BLOW AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. SUCH WINDS COULD PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND POORLY
ANCHORED STRUCTURES.

...RAINFALL...
IEST RAINFALL FROM JEANNE WILL FALL ALONG FLORIDA'S ATLANTIC
COAST. FEEDER BANDS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN COULD DROP
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY
PERSISTENT BANDS...BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LITTLE OR NO FLOODING WOULD RESULT.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A THREAT OF SMALL...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES WELL AHEAD OF
JEANNE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN STRONGER FEEDER
BANDS.

...STORM SURGE...
THE PREDOMINANT FLOW AROUND JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS UNFAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STORM
SURGE ON THE SUNCOAST.

...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FOR MORE ON HURRICANE JEANNE...SEE
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
what are you doing to prepare for this strom, are you concerned..im in south tampa..i see your in tampa too.
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Anonymous

#7 Postby Anonymous » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:24 pm

000
FXUS62 KTBW 241752
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
151 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUN)...ALL EYES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO BE
ON HURRICANE JEANNE TO THE EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF JEANNE WILL FAVOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD...
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF JEANNE...SO SKIES SHOULD
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY CLOUDY.

ON SATURDAY CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. OUTER BANDS OF JEANNE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION...FIRST OVER MY
INTERIOR ZONES...THEN SPREADING WEST INTO MY COASTAL ZONES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN...
WITH MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLUTION AS TO WHERE JEANNE WILL GO.
HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK OF JEANNE FROM THE
HURRICANE CENTER LATE THIS MORNING...THE WORST WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER MY INTERIOR ZONES FROM SUMTER COUNTY SOUTH INTO POLK...
HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF DESOTO COUNTIES AS
JEANNE MOVES INLAND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY...
THEN BEGINS TO MOVE NWWD AND NORTH DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THIS HAVE
DEPICTED HIGH END LIKELY CATEGORY POPS ~70% FOR THESE AREAS...
TAPERING POPS BACK AS ONE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST COAST. IN ADDITION TO
THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS A POSSIBILITY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY OVER MY INTERIOR ZONES...WITH SOME NEAR
T.S. FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. AGAIN THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CURRENT NHC TRACK OF JEANNE...AND IS SUBJECT
TO CHANGE...SO ALL RESIDENTS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT - FRIDAY)...JEANNE'S INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
AREA CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE ONLY SUN NIGHT AND MON. EXPECT WINDS...
POSSIBLY AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE UP IN THE NATURE COAST
COUNTIES...TO CALM DOWN MON MORNING WITH HIGHER SPEEDS HANGING ON A
LITTLE LONGER OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN STEERING JEANNE WILL EXPAND IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
AND BRIDGE ACROSS THE GULF. THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG...
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PW'S INITIALLY DROPPING TO 1.5 ON TUE AND
THEN INCREASING BY WEEK'S END TO 2 INCHES. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS
HIGHER POPS THU AND FRI. HOWEVER FLOW AT THE SFC LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE NERLY...AND THIS IS NOT A FAVORED REGIME FOR POPS. WILL CHANGE THE
POPS ON WED TO ISOLD AND LEAVE IN 30 POPS THU AND FRI AFTNS. BECAUSE
OF THE LOWER POPS...CURRENT TEMP FORECAST OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.MARINE...AS HURRICANE JEANNE GETS CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. GIVEN THIS
WILL BE HOISTING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL LEGS
IN THE 430 PM PACKAGE. BEYOND THIS THE EXACT TRACK OF JEANNE WILL
DICTATE HOW STRONG WIND AND SEAS WILL GET. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES
ON JEANNE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
AT THIS TIME WILL ADVERTISE INCREASING WINDS/SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 073 086 075 085/ 00 30 50 60
FMY 072 086 075 085/ 00 40 50 60
GIF 072 086 075 085/ 00 50 70 70
SRQ 072 086 076 084/ 00 30 50 60
BKV 068 086 073 085/ 00 30 50 60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM....SHARP
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#8 Postby Noah » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:28 pm

thank you kindly!
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