Max Mayfied comments at 7:20

[KeyLargoDave]

Max Mayfield just interviewed on CBS 4 Miami by Brian Norcross(paraphrasing here):

We considered not have put Miami Dade under hurricane warning earlier, but now the GFS is showing landfall south of Palm Beach County, so I'm glad we put Miami-Dade under warning.

Said he wished models were coming closer together. Again repeated that the zone of error on Jeanne could be analogous to the drift southward of Andrew from Broward-Palm Beach county line to South Dade county back in 1992 (Really trying to keep Miami-Dade county on its toes, it seems). Similar rationale for keeping Keys under TS watch.

Not much strengthening yet, but there's still time (stregthening, of course, mentioned in the 5 p.m. forecast advisory).

For those who might be able to get it but don't have TV, you can get Miami NBC station on 87.5 FM. Websites nbc6.net, CBS and ABC in Miami have video clips of forecasts.

Channel 4 and 6 here are on continuous storm coverage now. ABC and Fox aren't.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

o.k....then why doesnt the NHC have Miami in the cone??

[Foladar]

same thing we've been hearing all day and for the past three days tired of hearing it already, this cane needs to speed up.

[Glen]

Be careful what you ask for....... I think Saturday will be an "interesting" day.

[KeyLargoDave]

o.k....then why doesnt the NHC have Miami in the cone??

Well, the cone is where the center could be, the warning means you have at least hurricane winds. Not the same thing, right? Since its forecast to go much farther north, they're discounting the eye getting all the way to Miami, but obviously not hurricane winds.

I think the analogy with Andrew wasn't specific, not, "this could go all the way to south dade," just "this could go farther south"

Hope that's right.

[jinftl]

If I am looking at the 5pm charts correctly from the nhc, the northern-half of miami-dade county is in the white cone.

[jlauderdal]

Max Mayfield just interviewed on CBS 4 Miami by Brian Norcross(paraphrasing here):

We considered not have put Miami Dade under hurricane warning earlier, but now the GFS is showing landfall south of Palm Beach County, so I'm glad we put Miami-Dade under warning.

Said he wished models were coming closer together. Again repeated that the zone of error on Jeanne could be analogous to the drift southward of Andrew from Broward-Palm Beach county line to South Dade county back in 1992 (Really trying to keep Miami-Dade county on its toes, it seems). Similar rationale for keeping Keys under TS watch.

Not much strengthening yet, but there's still time (stregthening, of course, mentioned in the 5 p.m. forecast advisory).

For those who might be able to get it but don't have TV, you can get Miami NBC station on 87.5 FM. Websites nbc6.net, CBS and ABC in Miami have video clips of forecasts.

Channel 4 and 6 here are on continuous storm coverage now. ABC and Fox aren't.

yeah and than norcross tired to get the 18z gfs on the screen and of course his partner didnt have it ready...oh well..norcross did a nice job interviewing max...funny how much more info max gives to the local miami guys versus the national media

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

o.k....then why doesnt the NHC have Miami in the cone??

Well, the cone is where the center could be, the warning means you have at least hurricane winds. Not the same thing, right? Since its forecast to go much farther north, they're discounting the eye getting all the way to Miami, but obviously not hurricane winds.

I think the analogy with Andrew wasn't specific, not, "this could go all the way to south dade," just "this could go farther south"

Hope that's right.

no..the cone covers the area that could be affected, the middle of the cone is where the storm is forecasted to go, the one that they showed as of 5pm is not near miami at all...????

[jinftl]

i could be wrong......please let the experts clarify....i thought that any area in the cone has equally probability of being where the center will be located....it is not a wind field map with the center of the cone of probability being the core of strongest winds.


Again, could be wrong....this is a great chance to learn something new.

[Guest]

o.k....then why doesnt the NHC have Miami in the cone??

Huh..Miami is in the cone,Miami meet cone.

Maybe Homestead is not in it but Miami is.

I might also add it would not be impossible for the track to shift even further south.

[KeyLargoDave]

Beg to differ --
I say the cone is the uncertainty of where the CENTER of the storm could be -- it's not a windfield prediction, which is what you seem to be saying. Yes, the track is at the center of the cone, but it's a cone of uncertainty for that track, not just (or even) the area predicted to be "affected"

Otherwise, why would the cone narrow as a storm gets near the coast -- its because the track is more certain, not because the "affects" aren't going out as far, right?

I'll look for the NHC explanation, but if anyone else want to chime in, please do.

[ColinD]

o.k....then why doesnt the NHC have Miami in the cone??

Well, the cone is where the center could be, the warning means you have at least hurricane winds. Not the same thing, right? Since its forecast to go much farther north, they're discounting the eye getting all the way to Miami, but obviously not hurricane winds.

I think the analogy with Andrew wasn't specific, not, "this could go all the way to south dade," just "this could go farther south"

Hope that's right.

no..the cone covers the area that could be affected, the middle of the cone is where the storm is forecasted to go, the one that they showed as of 5pm is not near miami at all...????

The cone is the area between the forecast location and the average forecast error. This is why the area always increases in width with time. It's not an "area of effect".

[jinftl]

thanks for clarifying.....to this day the cone still confuses people

[ColinD]

i could be wrong......please let the experts clarify....i thought that any area in the cone has equally probability of being where the center will be located....it is not a wind field map with the center of the cone of probability being the core of strongest winds.

Again, could be wrong....this is a great chance to learn something new.

The probability is greatest

1. closest to the forecast track
2. in the nearest time frames

Example of 1) The center is more likely to pass close to Melbourne than Fort Meyers though both are in the cone.

Example of 2) The center is more likely to pass close to the forecast point for Sunday than Tuesday.

[Guest]

But this is not set in stone & subject to subtle changes that are reltivlely big in terms of affects to any given area.