NWS: Baltimore: Possible NE GOM/Appalachian Track?

[PanAmMIA]

Read the nightly forcast discussion from the NWS Baltimore/DC. It seems to indicate the <possibility> of an NE GOM and eventual Appalachian track. Anyone have a link to these models, along with a possible rationale?
Mike
GO GATORS


Disclaimer: I deleted the parts of this discussion that included local/regional information. Mike

http://www.nws.noaa.gov
000
FXUS61 KLWX 241807
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
210 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

FORECAST RATIONALE: FOCUS OF EXTENDED PACKAGE IS WITH POSSIBLE
AFFECTS FROM HURRICANE JEANNE. PLEASE REFERENCE THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND TRACK
FORECASTS PERTAINING TO JEANNE.

FALLING HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN CANADA...AS A WAVE CONTINUES
TO ROUND THE RIDGE NEAR THE JAMES BAY REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
RIDGE TO MOVE SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST DOWN THE EAST COAST DURING THE
COMING DAYS. MIDLEVEL SHEARING WILL TAKE PLACE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL SLOW ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE WEST...AND
LIKELY STALL THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS (CURRENT
INTERACTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND THE REMNANTS OF IVAN OVER THE
GULF COAST WILL FURTHER SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS).

THE EAST COAST MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR JEANNE...AS WELL AS THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
EUROPEAN ARE THE FURTHEST EAST WITH RESPECT TO JEANNE...BUT BOTH HAD
A SIGNIFICANT RIGHT BIAS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. 00Z UKMET AND
NOGAPS/12Z CANADIAN TRACK THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE APPALACHIANS (12Z ETA/NGM SHOW THIS AS
WELL...BUT GENERALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS WHEN LOOKING AT TRACKS
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS).

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION FORECASTER: SMZ
LONG TERM FORECASTER: ROGOWSKI






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[Pileus]

Don't EEEEEven say more rain for the Apps. They are still reeling up there. Slides everywhere, many many road closures.

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's bad enough if we see a track up the Appalchians. It's just as bad that we could see an extreme beach erosion and major coastal flooding event not only in Florida's east coast, but up the coast to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Jim