Could easily be 125+ by landfall

andrew_the_beast · #1 Postby **andrew_the_beast** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:24 pm

with higher gusts. Landfall still about 6 hours away so there is time for strengthing and latest IR confirms that.

djtexillini · #2 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:28 pm

Can you explain what you see on IR that confirms strengthening. Ill explain what I see and then you and we can compare what one of us is missing.

I see warmer cloudtops then earlier, I see dry air wrapping on the west side unlike earlier. I do see what appears to be a smaller eye....however when comparing to the visible satellite this appears to be cirrus blowover causing an illusion. All in all I think the IR showed a better storm 3-6 hours ago then it does right now.

Tri-State_1925 · #3 Postby **Tri-State_1925** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:31 pm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Could be Jeanne's last stand...the cold tops are wrapping around again. Still too ragged for 125+ at this time.

Innotech · #4 Postby **Innotech** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:33 pm

djtexillini wrote:Can you explain what you see on IR that confirms strengthening. Ill explain what I see and then you and we can compare what one of us is missing.

I see warmer cloudtops then earlier, I see dry air wrapping on the west side unlike earlier. I do see what appears to be a smaller eye....however when comparing to the visible satellite this appears to be cirrus blowover causing an illusion. All in all I think the IR showed a better storm 3-6 hours ago then it does right now.

mid afternoon convective minimum as NEXRAD put it....
Convection tends to die down in late afternoon, and intensifies again in the diurnal period at night. The storm is not weaker than it was when it looked better on sat. If anything it is actually more powerful.

djtexillini · #5 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:34 pm

Tri...I also did a quick look at WV....and it also shows a possible "last stand" last minute organization trend...

#6 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:36 pm

They are seeing the eye wall getting it's act more together. Don't think a 10mph increase in windspeed is out of the question by any means...in fact it is entirely possible considering it is going over some very nice temp waters with a nice size eye with plenty of room to contract and do a pressure drop.

URNT12 KNHC 251750
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/1750Z
B. 26 DEG 51 MIN N
78 DEG 10 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2673 M
D. 30 KT
E. 216 DEG 107 NM
F. 298 DEG 81 KT
G. 197 DEG 019 NM
H. 953 MB
I. 12 C/ 3075 M
J. 16 C/ 3093 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF963 2111A JEANNE OB 26
MAX FL WIND 113 KT NE QUAD 1420Z. MAX FL TEMP 17C 318/12NM FROM
FL CNTR. EYEWALL APPEARS BETTER ORGANIZED. EYE CLOUD FILLED.

TropicalJen · #7 Postby **TropicalJen** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:39 pm

exactly, remember charley made cat 3/4 in the final hour...not entirely out of the question.

Hurrilurker · #8 Postby **Hurrilurker** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:46 pm

I hope there are no important shuttle launches planned. It looks like the Cape Canaveral complex may get hit hard, and I think it already suffered major damage from Frances (thousands of tiles missing off the side of the shuttle hangar IIRC).

djtexillini · #9 Postby **djtexillini** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:01 pm

my how things change in 2 hours.....dry air band has been washed out by wrap around convection...deep convection has encircled the eye...the eye has contracted and become better defined.

looking forward to next recon..

Could easily be 125+ by landfall

Could easily be 125+ by landfall

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