Latest recon. 951/closed/higher winds not found yet...

[djtexillini]

400
URNT12 KNHC 252220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/2156Z
B. 27 DEG 02 MIN N
78 DEG 56 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2665 M
D. NA
E. NA DEG NM
F. 126 DEG 100 KT
G. 033 DEG 24 NM
H. 951 MB
I. 16 C/ 3056 M
J. 17 C/ 3059 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C 40
N. 12345/7
0. 1/ 1 NM
P. NOAA3 2211A JEANNE OB 08
MAX FLT WND 108 KTS NW QUAD 2021Z

[calidoug]

Yep. With the warming convection, I wouldn't expect further pressure drops, or wind increases.

[Scorpion]

When will the wind respond to the pressure?

[djtexillini]

At 115mph Id say the wind is responding!!

Again, correlation between pressure and wind isnt a sure bet and Jeanne has consistently not produced the wind an average storm at the same pressure does. Just one of those things I guess.

[jj_frap]

Calidoug's optimism isn't a bad thing, but he's always trolly and mean-spirited about it.

He behaved the same way during Ivan.

[Stormsfury]

Jeanne's pressure correlation to wind has always been below the average SSD estimates (in regards to wind/pressure relation ...) ... This was obviously noted with Jeanne at 100 mph but with a minimum central pressure in the 960's, which normally correlates with a CAT 3 ... 950 mb generally correlates to a high end CAT 3/low end CAT 4 ...

Part of the reason is the inner core isn't very tight ... and the circulation of Jeanne is huge ... the eye on last RECON is 40 NM circular, and hurricane force winds extend out to 60 NM ... tropical storm force winds extend out 205 miles from the center on the northern side ...

Also, a storm like this will not wind down as fast b/c of its huge envelope and on the northern end, the pressure gradient between Jeanne and the high pressure will contribute to large expanse of strong winds, even well north and east of the eye/center ...

SF

[otowntiger]

Jeanne's pressure correlation to wind has always been below the average SSD estimates (in regards to wind/pressure relation ...) ... This was obviously noted with Jeanne at 100 mph but with a minimum central pressure in the 960's, which normally correlates with a CAT 3 ... 950 mb generally correlates to a high end CAT 3/low end CAT 4 ...

Part of the reason is the inner core isn't very tight ... and the circulation of Jeanne is huge ... the eye on last RECON is 40 NM circular, and hurricane force winds extend out to 60 NM ... tropical storm force winds extend out 205 miles from the center on the northern side ...

Also, a storm like this will not wind down as fast b/c of its huge envelope and on the northern end, the pressure gradient between Jeanne and the high pressure will contribute to large expanse of strong winds, even well north and east of the eye/center ...

SF

Thanks Stormsfury. Very well reasoned and informative. You make a lot of sense. What kind of winds do you think we can expect here in the Orlando area, given the current track and intensity?