http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
westward along the Gulf Coast of northern Florida to Indian Pass. A
Tropical Storm Warning is now effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from East Cape Sable northward to Indian Pass.
11 PM JEANNE -- 115 MPH, W 12, 951 MB.. 15 miles E of STUART
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yoda
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
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11 PM JEANNE -- 115 MPH, W 12, 951 MB.. 15 miles E of STUART
Last edited by yoda on Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Hurricane Jeanne Forecast/Advisory Number 50
Statement as of 03:00Z on September 26, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the Florida East Coast
from Florida City northward to St. Augustine...including Lake
Okeechobee. The Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Southeast
Florida coast may be discontinued early on Sunday.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the government of the Bahamas has downgraded
the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand
Bahama...the Abacos...Bimini...and the Berry Islands...and
discontinued the hurricane warnings for Eleuthera...Andros...and
New Providence Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
from north of St. Augustine northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
westward along the Gulf Coast of northern Florida to Indian Pass. A
Tropical Storm Warning is now effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from East Cape Sable northward to Indian Pass.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Englewood to the Suwannee
River.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Florida City
around the southern end of the Florida Peninsula to just south of
East Cape Sable including Florida Bay...and for the Florida Keys
north of the Seven Mile Bridge.
Hurricane center located near 27.2n 80.0w at 26/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 11 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 951 mb
eye diameter 40 nm
Max sustained winds 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt.
64 kt....... 60ne 60se 50sw 60nw.
50 kt.......100ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt.......180ne 150se 125sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..480ne 300se 180sw 250nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 27.2n 80.0w at 26/0300z
at 26/0000z center was located near 27.1n 79.3w
forecast valid 26/1200z 28.0n 81.5w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
50 kt...100ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...180ne 150se 125sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 27/0000z 29.2n 82.9w...inland
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...120ne 120se 100sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 27/1200z 31.0n 83.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 28/0000z 33.0n 83.0w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 29/0000z 38.0n 75.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 30/0000z 42.0n 65.0w...becoming extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
Outlook valid 01/0000z 45.0n 54.0w...extratropical
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27.2n 80.0w
next advisory at 26/0900z
forecaster Pasch
Statement as of 03:00Z on September 26, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the Florida East Coast
from Florida City northward to St. Augustine...including Lake
Okeechobee. The Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Southeast
Florida coast may be discontinued early on Sunday.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the government of the Bahamas has downgraded
the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand
Bahama...the Abacos...Bimini...and the Berry Islands...and
discontinued the hurricane warnings for Eleuthera...Andros...and
New Providence Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
from north of St. Augustine northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
westward along the Gulf Coast of northern Florida to Indian Pass. A
Tropical Storm Warning is now effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from East Cape Sable northward to Indian Pass.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Englewood to the Suwannee
River.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Florida City
around the southern end of the Florida Peninsula to just south of
East Cape Sable including Florida Bay...and for the Florida Keys
north of the Seven Mile Bridge.
Hurricane center located near 27.2n 80.0w at 26/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 11 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 951 mb
eye diameter 40 nm
Max sustained winds 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt.
64 kt....... 60ne 60se 50sw 60nw.
50 kt.......100ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt.......180ne 150se 125sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..480ne 300se 180sw 250nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 27.2n 80.0w at 26/0300z
at 26/0000z center was located near 27.1n 79.3w
forecast valid 26/1200z 28.0n 81.5w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
50 kt...100ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...180ne 150se 125sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 27/0000z 29.2n 82.9w...inland
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...120ne 120se 100sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 27/1200z 31.0n 83.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 28/0000z 33.0n 83.0w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 29/0000z 38.0n 75.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 30/0000z 42.0n 65.0w...becoming extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
Outlook valid 01/0000z 45.0n 54.0w...extratropical
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27.2n 80.0w
next advisory at 26/0900z
forecaster Pasch
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cape_escape
- Category 2
- Posts: 745
- Age: 56
- Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 2:39 am
- Location: Cape Coral Florida
- Contact:
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yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 50
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2004
...Eye of Hurricane Jeanne beginning to move onshore over Martin and
St. Lucie counties...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the Florida East Coast
from Florida City northward to St. Augustine...including Lake
Okeechobee. The Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Southeast
Florida coast may be discontinued early on Sunday.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the government of the Bahamas has downgraded
the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand
Bahama...the Abacos...Bimini...and the Berry Islands...and
discontinued the hurricane warnings for Eleuthera...Andros...and
New Providence Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
from north of St. Augustine northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
westward along the Gulf Coast of northern Florida to Indian Pass. A
Tropical Storm Warning is now effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from East Cape Sable northward to Indian Pass.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Englewood to the Suwannee
River.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Florida City
around the southern end of the Florida Peninsula to just south of
East Cape Sable including Florida Bay...and for the Florida Keys
north of the Seven Mile Bridge.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 27.2 north... longitude 80.0 west or about 15 miles
miles east of Stuart Florida.
Jeanne is moving slightly north of west near 13 mph...and a gradual
turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On
this track the center will be moving inland near midnight...and
across central Florida on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...with higher gusts.
Jeanne is a dangerous category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Stronger winds...especially in
gusts...are likely to occur on high rise buildings. Jeanne will
begin to weaken after the center moves inland.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles. A Florida coastal monitoring program wind tower near
Vero Beach recently reported sustained winds of 68 mph with a gust
to 94 mph.
After the issuance of the forecast/advisory...a NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 953
mb...28.14 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
along the Florida East Coast. A storm surge of up to 5 feet above
the present water level is likely to occur mainly on the east side
of Lake Okeechobee.
Tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible in the warned area
along the Florida West Coast....possibly reaching 3 to 6 feet in
areas of onshore flow north of Tampa Bay.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher amounts
...Are possible near the path of Jeanne over Florida.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the east Florida
Peninsula tonight.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...27.2 N... 80.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 953 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1 am EDT and 3 am EDT followed by the next complete
advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2004
...Eye of Hurricane Jeanne beginning to move onshore over Martin and
St. Lucie counties...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the Florida East Coast
from Florida City northward to St. Augustine...including Lake
Okeechobee. The Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Southeast
Florida coast may be discontinued early on Sunday.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the government of the Bahamas has downgraded
the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand
Bahama...the Abacos...Bimini...and the Berry Islands...and
discontinued the hurricane warnings for Eleuthera...Andros...and
New Providence Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect
from north of St. Augustine northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
westward along the Gulf Coast of northern Florida to Indian Pass. A
Tropical Storm Warning is now effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from East Cape Sable northward to Indian Pass.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Englewood to the Suwannee
River.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Florida City
around the southern end of the Florida Peninsula to just south of
East Cape Sable including Florida Bay...and for the Florida Keys
north of the Seven Mile Bridge.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 27.2 north... longitude 80.0 west or about 15 miles
miles east of Stuart Florida.
Jeanne is moving slightly north of west near 13 mph...and a gradual
turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On
this track the center will be moving inland near midnight...and
across central Florida on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...with higher gusts.
Jeanne is a dangerous category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Stronger winds...especially in
gusts...are likely to occur on high rise buildings. Jeanne will
begin to weaken after the center moves inland.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles. A Florida coastal monitoring program wind tower near
Vero Beach recently reported sustained winds of 68 mph with a gust
to 94 mph.
After the issuance of the forecast/advisory...a NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 953
mb...28.14 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
along the Florida East Coast. A storm surge of up to 5 feet above
the present water level is likely to occur mainly on the east side
of Lake Okeechobee.
Tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible in the warned area
along the Florida West Coast....possibly reaching 3 to 6 feet in
areas of onshore flow north of Tampa Bay.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher amounts
...Are possible near the path of Jeanne over Florida.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the east Florida
Peninsula tonight.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...27.2 N... 80.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 953 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1 am EDT and 3 am EDT followed by the next complete
advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
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yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 50
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2004
The eye is moving onshore over Martin and St. Lucie counties. On
radar over the past couple of hours...an inner eyewall was observed
to dissipate. Jeanne has a large 40 N mi diameter eye...with a
large radius of maximum winds...about 45 N mi. The eyewall
replacement probably played a role in preventing any additional
strengthening of the hurricane. In fact...sfmr and flight level
wind observations at this point do not quite support the 100 kt
intensity estimate...however the aircraft has not yet finished its
survey of the Hurricane.
Jeanne has been moving mostly westward over the past few hours...and
is still expected to make a gradual turn to the right as it moves
around the western periphery of a deep-layer high pressure system.
The current NHC track forecast is a little to the left and slightly
slower than that from the previous advisory. Late in the forecast
period...Jeanne should be accelerating in the westerlies and losing
tropical characteristics to the south and southeast of the Canadian
Maritimes. This forecast lies between the dynamical consensus and
the GFS track.
The Vero Beach fcmp tower just reported sustained winds of 75 mph
with a gust to 104 mph.
Winds of hurricane force could occur as far as 100 miles inland
along the track of Jeanne.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 26/0300z 27.2n 80.0w 100 kt
12hr VT 26/1200z 28.0n 81.5w 65 kt...inland
24hr VT 27/0000z 29.2n 82.9w 45 kt...inland
36hr VT 27/1200z 31.0n 83.5w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 28/0000z 33.0n 83.0w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 29/0000z 38.0n 75.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 30/0000z 42.0n 65.0w 40 kt...becoming extratropical
120hr VT 01/0000z 45.0n 54.0w 50 kt...extratropical
$$
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2004
The eye is moving onshore over Martin and St. Lucie counties. On
radar over the past couple of hours...an inner eyewall was observed
to dissipate. Jeanne has a large 40 N mi diameter eye...with a
large radius of maximum winds...about 45 N mi. The eyewall
replacement probably played a role in preventing any additional
strengthening of the hurricane. In fact...sfmr and flight level
wind observations at this point do not quite support the 100 kt
intensity estimate...however the aircraft has not yet finished its
survey of the Hurricane.
Jeanne has been moving mostly westward over the past few hours...and
is still expected to make a gradual turn to the right as it moves
around the western periphery of a deep-layer high pressure system.
The current NHC track forecast is a little to the left and slightly
slower than that from the previous advisory. Late in the forecast
period...Jeanne should be accelerating in the westerlies and losing
tropical characteristics to the south and southeast of the Canadian
Maritimes. This forecast lies between the dynamical consensus and
the GFS track.
The Vero Beach fcmp tower just reported sustained winds of 75 mph
with a gust to 104 mph.
Winds of hurricane force could occur as far as 100 miles inland
along the track of Jeanne.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 26/0300z 27.2n 80.0w 100 kt
12hr VT 26/1200z 28.0n 81.5w 65 kt...inland
24hr VT 27/0000z 29.2n 82.9w 45 kt...inland
36hr VT 27/1200z 31.0n 83.5w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 28/0000z 33.0n 83.0w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 29/0000z 38.0n 75.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 30/0000z 42.0n 65.0w 40 kt...becoming extratropical
120hr VT 01/0000z 45.0n 54.0w 50 kt...extratropical
$$
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