11 PM DISCUSSION... A tad weird IMO... but read...

[yoda]

Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 50


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2004


The eye is moving onshore over Martin and St. Lucie counties. On
radar over the past couple of hours...an inner eyewall was observed
to dissipate. Jeanne has a large 40 N mi diameter eye...with a
large radius of maximum winds...about 45 N mi. The eyewall
replacement probably played a role in preventing any additional
strengthening of the hurricane. In fact...sfmr and flight level
wind observations at this point do not quite support the 100 kt
intensity estimate...however the aircraft has not yet finished its
survey of the Hurricane.
Jeanne has been moving mostly westward over the past few hours...and
is still expected to make a gradual turn to the right as it moves
around the western periphery of a deep-layer high pressure system.
The current NHC track forecast is a little to the left and slightly
slower than that from the previous advisory. Late in the forecast
period...Jeanne should be accelerating in the westerlies and losing
tropical characteristics to the south and southeast of the Canadian
Maritimes. This forecast lies between the dynamical consensus and
the GFS track.
The Vero Beach fcmp tower just reported sustained winds of 75 mph
with a gust to 104 mph.
Winds of hurricane force could occur as far as 100 miles inland
along the track of Jeanne.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0300z 27.2n 80.0w 100 kt
12hr VT 26/1200z 28.0n 81.5w 65 kt...inland
24hr VT 27/0000z 29.2n 82.9w 45 kt...inland
36hr VT 27/1200z 31.0n 83.5w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 28/0000z 33.0n 83.0w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 29/0000z 38.0n 75.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 30/0000z 42.0n 65.0w 40 kt...becoming extratropical
120hr VT 01/0000z 45.0n 54.0w 50 kt...extratropical

$$

[senorpepr]

What are you finding that is weird?

[yoda]

What are you finding that is weird?

This part:

In fact...sfmr and flight level
wind observations at this point do not quite support the 100 kt
intensity estimate...however the aircraft has not yet finished its
survey of the Hurricane.


If so... wouldn't this mean that they had upgraded prematurely? Or would this mean its a CAT 2 at landfall is the aircraft agrees with what the SFMR and the flight level winds say?

[Cookiely]

Don't you find it strange that he didn't mention GA,SC but went straight to the Canadian maritimes.

[senorpepr]

What are you finding that is weird?

This part:

In fact...sfmr and flight level
wind observations at this point do not quite support the 100 kt
intensity estimate...however the aircraft has not yet finished its
survey of the Hurricane.


If so... wouldn't this mean that they had upgraded prematurely? Or would this mean its a CAT 2 at landfall is the aircraft agrees with what the SFMR and the flight level winds say?

No, if I'm not mistaken, recon confirmed the cat 3 status earlier. However, it appears as if Jeanne weakened slightly to cat 2 status before landfall. Radar also confirmed this as the eye weakened a bit.

[yoda]

What are you finding that is weird?

This part:

In fact...sfmr and flight level
wind observations at this point do not quite support the 100 kt
intensity estimate...however the aircraft has not yet finished its
survey of the Hurricane.


If so... wouldn't this mean that they had upgraded prematurely? Or would this mean its a CAT 2 at landfall is the aircraft agrees with what the SFMR and the flight level winds say?

Ah.. ok. So this MAY, MAY suggest that Jeanne made landfall as a CAT 2?

No, if I'm not mistaken, recon confirmed the cat 3 status earlier. However, it appears as if Jeanne weakened slightly to cat 2 status before landfall. Radar also confirmed this as the eye weakened a bit.

[Guest]

yes....recon measured 108kts 2 different times...was definitely a cat 3 at one point, weakened to cat 2 before landfall.

[bahamaswx]

Jeanne hasn't made landfall yet

[senorpepr]

Ah.. ok. So this MAY, MAY suggest that Jeanne made landfall as a CAT 2?

Possibly.

[senorpepr]

Jeanne hasn't made landfall yet

Actually, it has along the barrier islands.

[yoda]

So are we agreeing FOR NOW that Jeanne made landfall as a CAT 2?

[senorpepr]

So are we agreeing FOR NOW that Jeanne made landfall as a CAT 2?

In my opinion, it was cat 2 simply based on what recon had been reporting and what the new data shown. Unless I see data that proves otherwise, I'm standing by cat 2 when it struck the barrier islands.

[bahamaswx]

Jeanne hasn't made landfall yet

Actually, it has along the barrier islands.

I thought landfall was the center of the eye? Unless these barrier islands are much further away from the mainland than I'm figuring...

[senorpepr]

Jeanne hasn't made landfall yet

Actually, it has along the barrier islands.

I thought landfall was the center of the eye? Unless these barrier islands are much further away from the mainland than I'm figuring...

Well, you could look at it either way. However, the eye is making landfall. Since part of the eye has made landfall, landfall has occurred. On the other hand, the vortex of the storm -- the centroid of the eye -- has not made landfall.

[Indystorm]

Landfall is when the center of the eye touches shore......not when the eyewall reaches shore. Correct

[weatherlover427]

What are you finding that is weird?

This part:

In fact...sfmr and flight level
wind observations at this point do not quite support the 100 kt
intensity estimate...however the aircraft has not yet finished its survey of the Hurricane.


If so... wouldn't this mean that they had upgraded prematurely? Or would this mean its a CAT 2 at landfall is the aircraft agrees with what the SFMR and the flight level winds say?

Read the part I highlighted.

[Guest]

It was a CAT 3 at landfall.

Max Mayfield said that the NOAA jet found 115 mph winds N of the center a short time ago.