Into the GOM?...........

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dixiebreeze
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Into the GOM?...........

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:37 pm

Some of you have to be wondering by now if this due west moving Hurricane just might tear across the Peninsula and dive into the GOM. Anyone?
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#2 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:38 pm

IF it does, it'll be like Frances.
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#3 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:39 pm

I think now she just might. Exactly where she will emerge is the question.
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#4 Postby Ixolib » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:40 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:I think now she just might. Exactly where she will emerge is the question.


Derek is up now - perhaps he'll provide some insight?????
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#5 Postby sunupgal » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:40 pm

I know it might be like Frances, but Frances exited north of Tampa Bay. If Jeanne exits south, couldn't Tampa Bay and the exterior counties suffer much worse conditions...i.e. flooding due to winds pushing much more water into the bay?
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#6 Postby southerngale » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:46 pm

Why do you think it might do this? I haven't had time to look at the reasons why but all of the models that I've seen plus the NHC official track show a curve to the northwest, north and then northeast.
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#7 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:50 pm

Southerngale, because she continues to move due west; the ridge appears to be building westward; and because it is the path of least resistance. Plus, a very real hunch.
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#8 Postby southerngale » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:55 pm

Ok dixie...thanks. I was just wondering why you thought this. I would assume the NHC expects the ridge to weaken soon so it can turn north. No signs of that yet?
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#9 Postby cape_escape » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:57 pm

With the westerly flow, could it exit near Sarasota?
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#10 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 10:59 pm

southerngale wrote:Ok dixie...thanks. I was just wondering why you thought this. I would assume the NHC expects the ridge to weaken soon so it can turn north. No signs of that yet?


With Every Advisory the Track keep shifting left. Getting Near the Gulf of mexico now. Maybe Further west next advisory if current heading continues.
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#11 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 25, 2004 11:01 pm

No... it'll turn. Only a brief GOM re-emergence if at all.
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