Is October and November activity slower?

AmeliaIslandr · #1 Postby **AmeliaIslandr** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 8:50 am

I am a displaced Canadian living in Northeast FL and was wondering if we will see a slowdown in storms through Oct and Nov? Where can I look up month by month histirocal data.

ColdFront77 · #2 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 8:52 am

This should be a very helpful site for you: Unisys Weather: "Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year"

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 8:53 am

I would not bet anything off this season. Pray a storm does not form in the BOM or western Gulf. That water is hotter than Stephanie Abrams... well, almost. :lol:

#4 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 8:55 am

Floydbuster is right, we do tend to see more activity Oct-Nov in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. There have been some significant October storms in our recent history -- Opal and Lili come immediately to mind.

AmeliaIslandr · #5 Postby **AmeliaIslandr** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 8:57 am

Thanks, so far we are sunny and breezy here in Amelia Island. I'm starting to think that the old tales of jax being hurricane proof are true. We should be getting some wind and rain soon looking at radar but nothing like other areas of the state. Hope everyone is safe.

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 8:57 am

There's a secondary peak in Early October. Both months can have activity, but November usually doesn't, it's a lot like June or July, you might get 1 or 2 storms(mostly weak)

Cape Verde season(where Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne all came from) will shut down here soon.

#7 Postby **Cookiely** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 8:58 am

ColdFront77 wrote:This should be a very helpful site for you: Unisys Weather: "Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year"

Thank you for the link. I guess that there's not much hope that the season is OVER.

Website · #8 Postby **Brent** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 9:02 am

Well... if El Nino comes in as forecast, it probably will shut down the season after Mid-October or so.

But really, October/November will not be as active as August/September.

Innotech · #9 Postby **Innotech** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 9:04 am

Hurricane Lily was a Cat 4 145 mph monster right off the Louisiana coast in Early October. Apparently formidable storms CAN form in late season.

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 9:05 am

Innotech wrote:Hurricane Lily was a Cat 4 145 mph monster right off the Louisiana coast in Early October. Apparently formidable storms CAN form in late season.

Formed in Late September. :wink:

Innotech · #11 Postby **Innotech** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 9:06 am

Brent wrote:
Innotech wrote:Hurricane Lily was a Cat 4 145 mph monster right off the Louisiana coast in Early October. Apparently formidable storms CAN form in late season.

Formed in Late September.

close enough.

Scorpion · #12 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 9:14 am

Does Jeanne really count as a Cape Verde? I mean, it formed just east of the islands.

ColdFront77 · #13 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Sep 26, 2004 9:16 am

Brent wrote:There's a secondary peak in Early October. Both months can have activity, but November usually doesn't, it's a lot like June or July, you might get 1 or 2 storms(mostly weak)

Cape Verde season(where Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne all came from) will shut down here soon.

I agree, although I just spent the last ten minutes going through history and found.....

Roughly 65 tropical cyclones have formed in the Atlantic Basin in October and November between 1981 and 2003. (I am not counting the ones that formed in late September). Three actually developed in December.

During this same period, roughly 30 tropical cyclones have formed in the Atlantic Basin in June and July. (I am not including those that more than half of their existence was in August). Two formed in May.

Is October and November activity slower?

Is October and November activity slower?

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