October..Highest Prob For A South Fla Tropical Cyclone

[Guest]

In the whole season,in the entire basin!
August

September

October

Don't take the shutters down til Thanksgiving.

[Brent]

Yep... Charley was the first hurricane to hit the Florida West Coast from the SW in August in over 100 years. It was very unusual.

[wjs3]

Probably because the upper pattern when Charley came through looked like the fall, not August. Remember how far south the trough dug?

Question is whether the pattern in October will be more typical October--which is high probability for S Fla strikes (as you can see above) or something totally different, like the unusual summer pattern.

[Brent]

Probably because the upper pattern when Charley came through looked like the fall, not August. Remember how far south the trough dug?

Question is whether the pattern in October will be more typical October--which is high probability for S Fla strikes (as you can see above) or something totally different, like the unusual summer pattern.

Exactly. The Charley scenario would never happen in a normal August pattern.

[Guest]

To add to this the SST's in the Caribbean (October's breeding ground) are prime.

So far this season has had everything from looping hurricanes,unusual landfalls based on climo such as Charley..We have seen the highest & lowest latitude strong hurricanes that have ever developed..2 landfalls in the exact same location (Frances & Jeanne).The only thing left is an October Caribbean Beast to develop.

[Scorpion]

I think we just might see another Lili, or maybe a hurricane as strong as Mitch. October has alot to bring us. Lets hope that Florida will be spared next month. I think the attention will shift to the GOM.

[wjs3]

Given the amount of ridging we've been seeing in the western atalntic, would hope/guess that the typical october track might not be relevant. Agree that tracks with more of a westerly component because of ridging are more likely....

...If the current pattern holds...If we go to the normal pattern for October...which is what we had in August, that's a whole different ball of wax.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

[Guest]

Good point wjs3..Does anyone know what the long range forecast for Oct is? I'm to lazy to go looking for that right now.

But based on the luck Fla has had as of late, the pattern will probably set up Fla for another hit.

[CourierPR]

In another thread Vortex says that the NOGAPS shows more convection and lowering pressures in the NW Caribbean.

[CourierPR]

I should have added -in six days.

[Hurricanehink]

Great. The one place where a hurricane wasn't!

[Guest]

Some Potent Oct South Fla Hurricanes



Though this 1 did not actually hit,I m sure it cause some good effects.

Same could be said for this 1

This 1 was more of a Aug or Sept Track





Other Notable Oct Hurricanes







It seems that 9 out of 10 October hurricanes that affect the US hit Florida & specifically South Fla..Only Hazel jumps out at you as a non Florida event..

[Stormsfury]

Hopefully, with all the activity in August and September has transferred enough heat away from the deep tropics as to where to significantly level off the amount of activity ...

but with all things said ... the W Caribbean still has the highest TCHP in the entire basin, and that's something that generally stays around there all year round ... with the only difference between out of season, unfavorable conditions for development ...

SF

[inotherwords]

I don't know if this is significant or not, but the week before we had Jeanne, we had very dry (47% humidity) and coolish weather here, meaning in the mid 80s, for several days in a row. It felt really nice. It's very unusual to have weather like this here in September, we usually don't see anything like this until October or November.

So I'm wondering if this, at all, is indicative of a weather pattern for this time of year that may not be exactly what we usually expect. I guess I'm just hoping that it might indicate that we're facing an October which may not bring another big storm to Florida, being that October tends to be a busier than usual time for GOM storms. Thoughts?

[Dee Bee]

Redorangeglow, thanks for the interesting storm track archives ("Some Potent October South Florida Hurricanes"). As a relatively recent --4 year -- SoFla transplant from Chicago, I had never been affected by a hurricane until being hit by Frances and Jeanne in the last weeks. This site and all its participants are helping me learn as much as I can about these powerful phenomena!

[wjs3]

great topic, and great post of storm tracks.

moral of the story:

It sucks to be in the Keys in October.

Per my earlier post in this topic, I wonder whether October's pattern will end up looking "typical" with the NE movement starting way south like we see in so many of these tracks, or not