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000
FXUS62 KFFC 262157 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
540 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004
.SHORT TERM...
PATTERN SET BY PATH OF JEANNE. GFS MODEL OF CHOICE. TPC AND HPC GUIDELINES FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...DID UP POPS EAST AS WILL DEFINITELY GET RAIN THERE. AVN MOS GUIDANCE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR TEMPERATURES.
850MB WINDS INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS OUTER BANDS OF JEANNE BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE STATE. THIS IS REASON FOR HIGH WIND WATCH. HELICITIES AND SHEAR ACROSS RAIN BANDS INDICATE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY AS PER IVAN FOR LOW TOP SHORT LIVED TORNADOES WITH JEANNE...BUT IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS IS A MINIMAL THREAT.
RAINFALL WITH JEANNE SHOULD BE 4-6 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF THE STORMS PATH. WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NEAR 3 INCHES AND ANTECEDENT RAINFALL...ISSUED THE FLOOD WATCH.
AS THE SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTH STREAM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...IT CATCHES JEANNE AND TAKES IT NORTHEAST..THERE WILL BE RAPID CLEARING TUESDAY FROM 12Z ON AS PER IVAN.
.LONG TERM...
IN GENERAL A SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MAY PRODUCE SOME RETURNING MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEEK'S END, BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE DRY AS UNCERTAINTY AMONG MODELS HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY JEANNE. TRACK APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...TAKING IT TO NEAR VLD BY 12Z MON...THEN NNE TOWARD AGS BY 00Z TUE. MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE EAST OF A VLD-MCN-AGS LINE.
CEILINGS...TREND NOW IS VFR UNTIL OUTER RAINBANDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...AT WHICH TIME CIGS TREND TOWARD MVFR. GIVEN EXPECTED TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE...DO NOT SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR FOR ATL...BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW MVFR...E.G...010-015 CAN BE EXPECTED ROUGHLY FROM 09Z-18Z MON.
VISIBILITY...AGAIN...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IN RAINBANDS. EXPECT
PREVAILING MVFR IN RAINBANDS AND CORE RAIN. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS. THE CORE RAIN AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF MCN-AHN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE...WITH JUST OUTER NORTHWESTERN RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE ATL-CSGAREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
WX...MOSTLY RAIN THROUGHOUT LIFETIME OF SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSRA IN THE EASTERN RAINBANDS...MAINLY EAST OF MCN-AGS...SO WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF TSRA IN CSG-ATL-AHN AREA WITH NEW TAF ISSUANCE.
WINDS...JEANNE SHOULD EXHIBIT WIND CHARACTERISTICS VERY SIMILAR TO FRANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK. HENCE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME OVERNIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE EYE REMNANTS. FOR MCN...NE-N WINDS OF 25-35KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE 06Z-12Z...GENERALLY 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS 12Z-18Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 18Z. FOR ATL-CSG...GENERALLY 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25KTS INCREASING AFT 06Z 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS 35-40KTS UNTIL 14Z...THEN GENERALLY 20-25KTS GUSTS 30-35KTS 14Z-18Z...DIMINISHING AFTERWARDS. BY FAR...FOR THE FFC CWA...EXPECT WIND TO BE THE MAJOR IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE OF FASTER FORWARD SPEED AND MOVEMENT OF CORE THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTION OF CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA 64 78 65 81 / 40 70 50 10
ATHENS 64 78 65 81 / 40 99 80 10
GAINESVILLE 64 76 64 81 / 40 99 70 10
ROME 63 81 64 84 / 20 50 20 10
COLUMBUS 68 80 67 85 / 40 70 40 10
MACON 69 79 67 85 / 40 99 60 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VW/RAB
Brent wrote:Atlanta will be fine. Some rain and gusty wind, but nothing significant. Tornado threat will be well east(as will the flooding).
What Augusta and Savannah won't be an Ivan, it'll be more like Frances. Ivan was still a hurricane when it got up into Central Alabama, this will be a TD.
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