SW Caribbean Re-Fire!

Sanibel · #1 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:53 pm

Unexpected re-fire with hint of round organization.

Think we could have something here folks!

The disturbed area north of Panama and east of Nicaragua has flared nicely this afternoon. This is in prime climatology and is now on my screen...

Josephine96 · #2 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:54 pm

Oh boy.. if it fires..here we go again

James · #3 Postby **James** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:57 pm

Maybe it'll get a mention in the next TWO.

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:57 pm

Perhaps.. "any development will be slow to occur" lol

Scorpion · #5 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:59 pm

Wheres the link?

Josephine96 · #6 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:59 pm

Good question lol

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:01 pm

Sorry to spoil the party here.

but a big tutt trough is in the caribbean interacting with the tropical wave and divergent flow is causing that flareup.But yes Sanibel this is the area to watch in october as it is the climotological favored area however that TUTT has to go first.

Sanibel · #8 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:01 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

#9 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:02 pm

It can be seen here.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
Not terribly organized, but it has to sustain itself...

#10 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:03 pm

It did get a mention in the 2 p.m. NHC Discussion.

Sanibel · #11 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:06 pm

It's in a difficult corner, not only synoptically, but flow-wise as far as ITCZ drift into Central America.

I see those features north of it as weakening. This slow-to-start nature comforms not only with waiting out these features, but also with model timing.

Watch for night-time flaring as a sure sign...

Input: Persistence

#12 Postby **Buck** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:08 pm

Don't dismiss ANY possibilities with these Caribbean storms, folks. We get some of our nastiest from them. Opal, Mitch, Camille.

Josephine96 · #13 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:11 pm

party pooper Luis lol

Sanibel · #14 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:17 pm

Furthermore, how many times have we seen divergent agitation cause convection that then roots down over favorable waters? In this case, the TUTT would actually be the indirect cause of the storm. Alex formed from the tropical flow off the Atlantic piling up against the CONUS border. This lifting eventually formed a surface Low and we know what happened to the season after that!

That is right in the climatological "sweet-spot".

Keep watching folks...

Patrick99 · #15 Postby **Patrick99** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:22 pm

To my untrained eye, with the positioning of the TUTT the way it is, that area looks favorable for development. it's the E Caribbean that now looks unfavorable.

#16 Postby **Noah** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:23 pm

or the weather channel talking about it..

Wnghs2007 · #17 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:39 pm

Thanks Chad. For showing me this topic.

Guest · #18 Postby **Guest** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:42 pm

Whatever it is is going to get eaten alive if that TUTT low keeps moving that way like it appears to be doing.

Deana Cuevas · #19 Postby **Deana Cuevas** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:47 pm

Has anyone heard anything mentioned by any Mets about this?

CourierPR · #20 Postby **CourierPR** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:52 pm

Yesterday, Joe Bastardi said that the TUTT would serve to ventilate the system in the SW Caribbean.

SW Caribbean Re-Fire!

SW Caribbean Re-Fire!

i dont see it on noaa..

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