5N. 30W. Is this growing

[webke]

Can anyone tell if this is growing or has the potential to grow.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im not so sure. It seems to be associated with an upper level low more then anything. While its not unheard of to have a tropical system develop this far out at this time of year, odds are against it anyways.

<RICKY>

[Brent]

It'll be a fish either way.

[dhweather]

Yep, won't go past 50W

[alicia-w]

dont start that again. when people ask questions, they're trying to learn so it might be helpful to qualify your statements a bit. tell them WHY you think it's gonna be a fish or why it wont get past a certain point. please dont assume they already know.

[Sanibel]

I haven't looked at WV or visible yet. Is the convection area down at 5N-31W a better low-track potential center? Or is your 15N fix the center?

[webke]

The system is at 5n.

[Sanibel]

That was my first impression from the IR still. I don't run the loop out there because it is broken into 6 hour increments.


If this is the storm center we could see the possibility of a low-tracker into the Caribbean. This 5 degree perch is perfectly set-up to offset the Lisa-like up-pull happening in the mid-Atlantic now (Karl too).


If it forms, the TUTT will probably clear out by then and it could end up a dangerous low-tracker through the Caribbean. These sometimes tend to hit Yucatan at this time of year. - But the first thought is way too early and let's see if there's anything to it first...

[webke]

Thank you for the information.

[Wnghs2007]

That is just a flare up of convection that is being caused by the deep trough in the area, so I would expect no development. And the cape verde season has pretty much come to a close. Most will be a fish if anything forms at all out there.