New system forming from Lisa's tail???

[DAVE440]

In addition to the convective activity at 70/18 and 50/10 which has already been posted.....

I'm seeing what appears to be a new system trying to form from a piece of Lisa tail?

I noticed that convection from Lisa's tail seems to be circulating one direction (with stronger showers now west of it) and there is a flare up of showers to the east of it moving exactly opposite..... the total circulation appears to be counter clockwise as if a piece of Lisa's tail is extending into a low pressure area and is trying to form a new closed circulation. There is clearly a circular center to this system trying to get going.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

[GNWeather]

Based on the IR loop you posted, it appears to be an upper-level low, enhancing the storms. Nothing at the surface at all and nothing to be concerned about at this time.

[x-y-no]

Yeah, that's all upper-level.

[mascpa]

Can someone explain to me how you can tell the difference between an upper low circulation compared to a low level circulation from watching an IR loop. I can easily see the counterclockwise circulation but do not know how to determine if it is upper, middle or lower. Thanks for the education.

[Josephine96]

You'd only need to be concerned if it got down to the surface

[x-y-no]

Can someone explain to me how you can tell the difference between an upper low circulation compared to a low level circulation from watching an IR loop. I can easily see the counterclockwise circulation but do not know how to determine if it is upper, middle or lower. Thanks for the education.

In general, looking at IR alone won't be adequate, but looking at loops in visible, IR, and WV will give you a good idea. WV shows mostly upper level, IR and visible show the whole column but in different ways.

I also generally look at the models (particularly the initializations and the first few frames) frequently enough that I have some fair idea of what should be going on anyway. That helps me orient myself to what I'm looking at, and helps me find both correspondences and anomalies relative to what's expected.