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TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2004
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN EARLIER TODAY. LISA HAS AN EYE FEATURE AND THE CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THE EYE
FEATURE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A HURRICANE
AS INDICATED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALTHOUGH IN THE 12-HR OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR LISA TO REACH
HURRICANE STATUS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS BUT IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. LISA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48
HOURS. THERAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A
LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 33.6N 47.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 35.2N 48.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 37.5N 47.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 40.5N 43.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 44.0N 38.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
She after all may be a hurricane but only for a brief time.
