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WTIO21 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 010151ZOCT2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N1 67.7E0 TO 22.8N2 63.5E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 302330Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.6N5 67.2E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2N0
67.9E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N5 67.2E5 APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST
OF BOMBAY, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301813Z6
TRMM PASS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 301343Z4 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020200Z4.//
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