Or anyone else. Just thought I would see what everyone thinks about what Landsea and Gray were talking about. Do you see the set-up that occured this year as being part of a cycle that will prevail for the next ten to twenty years or do you think that it is something that is likely to change on more of a yearly basis?
Thanks
Question for prof mets?
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Question for prof mets?
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SouthernWx
I agree with Dr Gray and Dr Landsea....but that doesn't mean the Florida peninsula will be bombarded by 2-3 intense hurricanes every year.
In fact, there's IMO a pretty good chance no significant hurricane will strike Florida next season (2005)....but the likelyhood is just as good there will be landfalling major hurricanes in the years and decades to come.
Folks have to understand....the past four decades ARE NOT the normal (climatological) pattern for hurricanes affecting the Sunshine state.
Until 2004, only one (1) major hurricane struck the Florida peninsula between 1966 and 2003 (Andrew). The 1846-1965 historical return period for a landfalling 100+ mph hurricane somewhere on the peninsula was once every 3 years....and once every 3.5-4 years for a landfalling major (115+ mph) hurricane.
About three years ago, I asked this question on another hurricane forum: "What would you think if I told you a large cat-4 hurricane would strike downtown Miami this season, followed in two years by an even larger cat-4 hurricane into West Palm Beach....followed a year later by a 125 mph cat-3 into the Keys....followed four years later by another 125 mph cat-3 slamming into West Palm Beach; then a small but extemely violent 190 mph cat-5 hurricane obliterating the middle Florida Keys and lower southwest coast"??
That's not fantasy...that was the major landfalling hurricanes that slammed into the Florida peninsula between 1926 and 1935....it happened. It was horrible, and thousands died...but in those days, Florida was sparsely populated. There weren't millions of people in harms way, nor hundreds and hundreds of billion dollars worth of expensive property.
If you check out my "Significant Florida peninsula hurricanes" webpage, you'll see every category 2 or higher hurricane to strike the peninsula since 1846. You'll note some periods of no activity....and some periods where it seemed an intense hurricane struck the peninsula nearly every year (7 impacts between 1944-1950).
We've just experienced the longest intense hurricane lull in recorded Florida peninsula history. Odds are what we've witnessed during 2004 is only the beginning of what will be another active period...similar to the 1926-1950 period in Florida history. As bad as 2004 has been, the damage pales in comparism to what will happen when a large, intense hurricane makes a direct hit on a highly populated metropolitan area....as occurred in 1926, 1928, and 1947. Just as it was inevitable Florida would once again become active regarding major hurricane landfalls.....it's just as inevitable that sooner or later, one or more of these monster hurricanes will impact Miami/Fort Lauderdale, Tampa/ St Pete, West Palm Beach, or Jacksonville.
In fact, there's IMO a pretty good chance no significant hurricane will strike Florida next season (2005)....but the likelyhood is just as good there will be landfalling major hurricanes in the years and decades to come.
Folks have to understand....the past four decades ARE NOT the normal (climatological) pattern for hurricanes affecting the Sunshine state.
Until 2004, only one (1) major hurricane struck the Florida peninsula between 1966 and 2003 (Andrew). The 1846-1965 historical return period for a landfalling 100+ mph hurricane somewhere on the peninsula was once every 3 years....and once every 3.5-4 years for a landfalling major (115+ mph) hurricane.
About three years ago, I asked this question on another hurricane forum: "What would you think if I told you a large cat-4 hurricane would strike downtown Miami this season, followed in two years by an even larger cat-4 hurricane into West Palm Beach....followed a year later by a 125 mph cat-3 into the Keys....followed four years later by another 125 mph cat-3 slamming into West Palm Beach; then a small but extemely violent 190 mph cat-5 hurricane obliterating the middle Florida Keys and lower southwest coast"??
That's not fantasy...that was the major landfalling hurricanes that slammed into the Florida peninsula between 1926 and 1935....it happened. It was horrible, and thousands died...but in those days, Florida was sparsely populated. There weren't millions of people in harms way, nor hundreds and hundreds of billion dollars worth of expensive property.
If you check out my "Significant Florida peninsula hurricanes" webpage, you'll see every category 2 or higher hurricane to strike the peninsula since 1846. You'll note some periods of no activity....and some periods where it seemed an intense hurricane struck the peninsula nearly every year (7 impacts between 1944-1950).
We've just experienced the longest intense hurricane lull in recorded Florida peninsula history. Odds are what we've witnessed during 2004 is only the beginning of what will be another active period...similar to the 1926-1950 period in Florida history. As bad as 2004 has been, the damage pales in comparism to what will happen when a large, intense hurricane makes a direct hit on a highly populated metropolitan area....as occurred in 1926, 1928, and 1947. Just as it was inevitable Florida would once again become active regarding major hurricane landfalls.....it's just as inevitable that sooner or later, one or more of these monster hurricanes will impact Miami/Fort Lauderdale, Tampa/ St Pete, West Palm Beach, or Jacksonville.
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weatherwoman
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SouthernWx
weatherwoman wrote:people talk like florida is the only place to ever get it with hurricanes, north carolina gets its plenty of them too. we've probley had just as many as florida or even more often.
No, Florida leads the nation....by a wide margin in the number of landfalling significant hurricanes between 1846 and 2004. Texas ranks second, with North Carolina and Louisiana close behind for third.
Also, there are two tremendous differences between landfalling hurricanes on the Florida peninsula and North Carolina:
1) Intensity..
Due to warmer and more potent sea surface temperatures, hurricanes impacting Florida...especially southern Florida are historically among the most intense in the Atlantic basin. In fact, 5 of the 6 most intense U.S. hurricanes (since 1900) of record struck southern Florida....only hurricane Camille in 1969 among the top-6 that didn't impact the Sunshine state. The most intense hurricane to ever impact North Carolina was hurricane Hazel in 1954....130-135 mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 938 mb at landfall. Hazel wouldn't rank among the top
five most intense Florida landfalling hurricanes since 1900.
2) Population..
North Carolina is growing in population....as most southern states have the past three decades, but the coastal population pales in comparism to the millions in Florida who live along or near the coastline. Over five million permanent residents live along the Florida southeast coast between Miami and West Palm Beach....there are another 2.5-3 million living in the greater Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan area. Another million live in the Jacksonville area....and close to one million along the Florida southwest coast between Sarasota and Naples.
Add up the return period of severe (125 mph) hurricanes and the number of people in the path of a major hurricane, and Florida is clearly more at risk than North Carolina....more at risk than any U.S. state of a hurricane catastrophe.
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weatherwindow
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the short answer is ..not necessarily. every year is an independent trial in terms of the synoptic scale features which determine track. were the periods of 1926-1929 and 1945-1950 a coincidence...likely. certainly, an unfortunate coincidence for florida. will this year's steering pattern repeat itself in the near future...likely, given the long term average frequency of hurricane landfalls in this state. however, it is highly unlikely that this strong ridging will ever coincide with such a flurry of major hurricane genesis to produce 4 landfalls. it is much more likely that florida will experience something akin to the climatological average.
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SouthernWx
I agree weatherwindow, but the climatological average for the Florida peninsula is once every 3-4 years. We've seen the tremendous damage caused by three hurricanes in 2004, even though none of them made direct impacts on a major population center.
In an area as densely populated as southern Florida, and a large population unaccustomed to experiencing a powerful hurricane every three or four years will be quite a shock compared to the past three decades of inactivity. Also, it's almost inevitable, based on past major hurricanes, that a major population center will be devastated (between 1926-1947, Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach county were each impacted by three category 4 hurricanes).
It almost happened in 1992...because as horrific as hurricane Andrew's impact was, if landfall had occurred only 20-25 miles farther north (or Andrew had possessed a larger intense core), heavily populated downtown Miami, Miami Beach, and northern Dade county into extreme southern Broward county would have been completely obliterated....IMO to the loss of $100 million dollars, and hundreds of lives (because over 30% failed to evacuate the immediate shoreline area and barrier islands between Miami Beach and Hollywood...an area that would have been completely submerged by a 12-16' storm surge).
In an area as densely populated as southern Florida, and a large population unaccustomed to experiencing a powerful hurricane every three or four years will be quite a shock compared to the past three decades of inactivity. Also, it's almost inevitable, based on past major hurricanes, that a major population center will be devastated (between 1926-1947, Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach county were each impacted by three category 4 hurricanes).
It almost happened in 1992...because as horrific as hurricane Andrew's impact was, if landfall had occurred only 20-25 miles farther north (or Andrew had possessed a larger intense core), heavily populated downtown Miami, Miami Beach, and northern Dade county into extreme southern Broward county would have been completely obliterated....IMO to the loss of $100 million dollars, and hundreds of lives (because over 30% failed to evacuate the immediate shoreline area and barrier islands between Miami Beach and Hollywood...an area that would have been completely submerged by a 12-16' storm surge).
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You make excellent points about the history of hurrianes and the vulnerablity of Florida and Floridians.
Obviously, this does not make the impact any less when a major cane strikes another area, such as NC, TX, or LA. We are all vulnerable and we should all prepare as needed.
Will we have another 2004? Let's hope not! Is it highly possible we could have a large intense cane make landfall in a highly populated area? Absolutely. We have seen what this year has done so far, now we need to take appropriate steps to plan for future events and hope and pray they never occur.
I'm not trying to be gloom and doom here, just practical. Especially if you live directly on the coast or on a barrier island, you should know the risks involved and act accordingly.
Obviously, this does not make the impact any less when a major cane strikes another area, such as NC, TX, or LA. We are all vulnerable and we should all prepare as needed.
Will we have another 2004? Let's hope not! Is it highly possible we could have a large intense cane make landfall in a highly populated area? Absolutely. We have seen what this year has done so far, now we need to take appropriate steps to plan for future events and hope and pray they never occur.
I'm not trying to be gloom and doom here, just practical. Especially if you live directly on the coast or on a barrier island, you should know the risks involved and act accordingly.
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weatherwoman wrote:people talk like florida is the only place to ever get it with hurricanes, north carolina gets its plenty of them too. we've probley had just as many as florida or even more often.
it seems like that lately....the outer banks have definitly been taking some for the team the past few years...but southernwx is correct that fla. leads the nation hands down (and this year of course)..but even when the carolinas don't get a direct hit (georgia too) we usually get the "spill offs"
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greeng13 wrote:weatherwoman wrote:people talk like florida is the only place to ever get it with hurricanes, north carolina gets its plenty of them too. we've probley had just as many as florida or even more often.
it seems like that lately....the outer banks have definitly been taking some for the team the past few years...but southernwx is correct that fla. leads the nation hands down (and this year of course)..but even when the carolinas don't get a direct hit (georgia too) we usually get the "spill offs"
We've had nearly a foot of "spill offs" this year from Ivan, Frances and Jeanne here in Atlanta....so I can attest to the effects 'Canes have here. And...I still remember how we were pummeled by Opal in Oct. 1995. That was one heck of a scary night for me...had two preemie babies on heart monitors, newly divorced, living in a mobile home (all I could afford at the time). We were in the Tornado threat area...and the sound of stuff battering our little beer-can home was terrifying.
I stayed up all night, ready to grab my babies and run to the nearest ditch with 'em if a Tornado came to call. When it was all over, I was thoroughly exhausted. The babies were fine....they slept through it all. Hard to believe they're almost 10 now.
Still, my experience with Opal clearly tramatized me, and I tense up and go into "preparation mode" every time a 'Cane's "spill off" is predicted to come our way. Before Opal, I never really paid a lot of attention to 'Cane "spill off".
Jeny
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Stormsfury
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greeng13 wrote:weatherwoman wrote:people talk like florida is the only place to ever get it with hurricanes, north carolina gets its plenty of them too. we've probley had just as many as florida or even more often.
it seems like that lately....the outer banks have definitly been taking some for the team the past few years...but southernwx is correct that fla. leads the nation hands down (and this year of course)..but even when the carolinas don't get a direct hit (georgia too) we usually get the "spill offs"
Tropical Storm Gaston was pretty much a direct hit on Charleston County, just up the coast from us ... 60-70 mph wind gusts are quite considering the effects ... a couple of my pictures I snapped made the Charleston NWS website Weather Pictures Gallery, incidentally ... (they are already on my website, but it's pretty cool that they used two of them with tree damage done by Gaston) ...
SF
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SouthernWx
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