Deep convection burst in.....

[dixiebreeze]

the East Atlantic:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Thoughts anyone?

[cinlfla]

I hope someone answers you soon, I would like to see others thoughts on this as well.

[OURAGAN]

yes very deep convection.
What do you tkink about it?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG

[Matthew5]

Its a tropical wave hitting the southwestly winds...Nothing more nothing less...

[Aquawind]

Hmmm.. I do think you have a good eye for Deep Convection..

Other than that..

Give it another 24 hours of persistance..and then if it's alive..the battle begins..lol


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png

From the 8pm TWD..

...TROPICAL WAVES...
EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N
TO 17N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
CUTTING ACROSS THIS WAVE DIRECTLY.

It has a long tough fight ahead..certainly not impossible though..

[Sanibel]

If you look at the October 1-10 climatology chart there are several CV late-formers here in this area. The CV season need not be over.

If it has hit tropical Atlantic favorability after getting further away from Africa the center should be near 13N as I see it. Not really sure.

Our weatherman said it is dry around it. It also looks vertical in orientation. Could curl up and form. Let's watch...

[Noah]

Its a tropical wave hitting the southwestly winds...Nothing more nothing less...

.......

And this could become a hurricane heading towards florida again????

[weatherwindow]

per the NHC 805 TWC...trop wave along 30 deg w moving west...upper level high cutting right across it...apparently this is enhancing the convection...it will likely be short lived as it moves into a unfavorable area

[Matthew5]

No Noah, what is going on. Is a more late fall pattern is forming over the Eastern Atlantic...With a upper level area of low pressure centered near 25 north/35 west...What this is doing is forming a jetmax/jet out of the southwest of the southeastern side of the "ull"....Which is hitting the tropical wave moving west bound...What this is doing is forcing convection/thundstorms to form. If you look the upper low is moving west...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[OURAGAN]

The shear tendency is decreasing in that area.

It 's something to watch.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[Stormsfury]

CV development is not impossible at this time of year, but becoming much more rare ... and Matthew5 is right, the upper low to its NW is producing divergent flow aloft (around the base of an upper s/w ridge to its SE) ... The tropical wave is currently under the RRQ and enhancing quite a bit of convection right now, and thusly the wave is dynamically charged ...

SF

[Sanibel]

Like in the Caribbean, shear interaction can sometimes set off disturbances that take root when conditions improve. If that is possible in a shear-swept Atlantic scenario I don't know. As is the norm in the tropics, most don't...

[Brent]

It's sheared and even if it did develop, likely fish with the troughs coming off the U.S. now.