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ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZOCT2004//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZOCT2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 011200Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.0N2 66.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 11.5N7 87.5E0 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.0N3 87.1E6, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CYCLIC CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
RELEASED BY: LT PITTS, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/KLINZMANN/SPANSKI//
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