Damage control ?

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Florida unlikely to see rerun of 2004 storm season, forecaster says
By Ken Kaye
Staff Writer

October 2, 2004

Here's the short-term forecast: No hurricanes will pummel Florida this weekend -- a nice break after a six-week stretch of being brutalized.

And in the long term: The treacherous 2004 hurricane season probably won't be repeated for years, says noted prognosticator William Gray.

"This year has been a once-in-a-lifetime kind of year," he said. "Although Floridians should always be prepared for landfalling hurricanes, they should not expect what we have experienced this year to become the norm."

However, he said busier-than-average seasons and more landfalls likely are in Florida's future.

So far this year, 12 named storms have formed, including eight hurricanes, six with winds greater than 110 mph. On Friday, long-lingering Tropical Storm Lisa grew into the eighth hurricane and was aiming toward Europe.

In an updated forecast, released Friday, Gray, a Colorado State University professor, calls for three more storms, including another hurricane, to form this month. He previously projected 16 named storms and eight hurricanes.

One of the upcoming storms could already be in the making. A disturbance in the Caribbean could turn into a depression over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

This already is one of the most intense seasons on record and the most destructive one in Florida. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne ravaged the state to the tune of an estimated $45 billion.

Consider that in September, Frances and Ivan maintained major hurricane strength for a combined 17 days, the most intense September since 1950, Gray said.

Ivan alone remained an intense hurricane for 10 days, the most for a tropical system since 1900, he said.

And August was unusually intense as well, with three major hurricanes, Alex, Charley and Frances, forming in the Atlantic. That hasn't happened in an August since the mid-1940s.

Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, as well as Tropical Storm Bonnie, all hit Florida in a 48-day span, the most tropical activity one state has suffered in 130 years, Gray said.

The reason Florida was pounded so severely: The Atlantic basin has entered a new era of hurricane intensity that could last three to four decades, experts say.

In addition, the same set of atmospheric conditions and steering currents remained in place for much of the summer, notably a high-pressure ridge that pushed storms to the west, instead of allowing them to turn north, Gray said.

Gray puts the probability of another named storm striking the U.S. coast this month at 33 percent and the odds of a major hurricane at 8 percent.

Hurricane specialist Lixion Avila of the hurricane center said it's possible two or more hurricanes could form this month, as happened in 1995, 1998 and 1999.

"I'm not talking necessarily about major hurricanes," he said. "But sometimes you have an October with several hurricanes."

Gray said Florida had been lucky until this year -- the only major hurricanes to strike between 1966 and 2003 were Andrew in 1992 and Opal in 1995.

Yet, he said, Floridians should not consider this year the start of a trend, where four hurricanes punish the state each year.

"We would not recommend that anyone move out of Florida or decide not to move to Florida solely because of the threat of hurricanes," he said. "Florida hurricanes must be accepted as one small negative of an otherwise pleasant climate."