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The area of disturbed weather should enter the GOM by Thursday.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 021730
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT SAT OCT 2 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MON)...OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
SENSIBLE WX PATTERN AS TEMPS/HUMIDITY REMAIN MORE LIKE MID SUMMER
THAN EARLY OCTOBER. HOWEVER...LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN DEEP
ATMOSPHERE EXISTS...KEEPING PCPN CHANCES IN LINE WITH CLIMO VALUES
AS FORCING IS AT A PREMIUM. THAT MEANS ISOLD AFTN/EVE ACTIVITY FOR
MOST.

THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NATURE COAST...PERHAPS ONLY
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES WHO WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST DEEP TROUGH OF THE EARLY AUTUMN TO AFFECT THE
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST U.S. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS...AHEAD
OF A FRONT WHICH WILL NOT MAKE IT HERE...ARGUE FOR MORE SCT
ACTIVITY EACH AFTN.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT - SAT)...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH THE CENTER
MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST U.S. ON TUESDAY TO OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE THE OLDER WEAKER
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE LARGER STRONGER RIDGE TO OUR NORTH. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...
BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ITS PUSH OF HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND
THIS RESULTS IN STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

AT THIS TIME...I PLAN TO CONTINUE SHOWING NO MORE THAN 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE WATERS...AS IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY IN THE YEAR TO
SEE THIS STRONG OF A PUSH. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALSO HELP TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LEAD TO STRONGER
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...THROUGH MON...LIGHT E FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST
EACH AFTN. SEA BREEZE MAY BE PINNED TO THE SW FL COAST WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW THERE. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...NE FLOW WILL
TAKE CONTROL AS 1030+ MB HIGH SLIDES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID ATLC...WITH GRADIENT SHARPENING TO ITS SOUTH. WILL PROBABLY
HOIST CAUTION AND PERHAPS SCA BY WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DWPTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70-73 RANGE EACH AFTN
WITH LIGHT WINDS. NO HIGHLITES THROUGH MON. RH WILL FALL SOME
LATER IN THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA 074 090 073 089 / 20 20 20 20
FMY 073 090 072 089 / 20 20 20 20
GIF 072 091 071 090 / 20 20 20 20
SRQ 072 088 071 087 / 20 20 20 20
BKV 067 090 067 089 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....EJ

[TampaFl]