Front blocks northward path

[Zadok]

Keep your eye on the trend. FLORIDA!

[feederband]

great...........

[bigmike]

Well we can finally figure out what model jb worships this year the crappy GFS. Most reliable models have this thing hitting LA first and then turning ne.

[jes]

Thats what a model that someone kept posting last week said. They had it going to TX/LA and then following the coast to the western part of the Florida panhandle. I think the model had it going inland closer to Pensacola/Destin area.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap! It's coming right for us!

[WeatherEmperor]

Holy Crap! It's coming right for us!

Quick HurricaneGirl it comin right for ya. Get over immediately

<RICKY>

[Derek Ortt]

well...


we know what track this storm will not take.

there will be more of a northward turn, not a more eastward turn

[LaBreeze]

Why more of a northward than eastward turn Derek Ortt? Just wondering.

[Derek Ortt]

500mb winds are more southerly than westerly closer to Louisiana.

What is likely to happen based upon the obs is for the storm to start out moving ENE or NE, turn NE to NNE, then back ENE or NE near the coast.

However, the track os the center is not impoartant since this is very broad and spread out

[Jagno]

LaBreeze, I too am in SW Louisiana. I don't wish anything on those Floridians but Northward means us so go ahead and get the gumbo fired up, your Cameron Reeboks out and sit tight. We can handle this one for them. Even with all of the rains we still don't even have hardly any water in our ditches. We despirately needed the rain.

[Steve]

>>Well we can finally figure out what model jb worships this year the crappy GFS.

Through the process of elimination, it was the UKMET, especially later in the year. The last few years he was riding the ECMWF.

Steve

[PurdueWx80]

It's ridiculous and VERY misleading for accuweather to say that a surface front will affect the motion of a freakin' tropical storm/disturbance/low. I can't believe they are getting away with that image. ARGGH!!!

As most of us in here probably know by now, these are deep systems that are controlled by deep layers of background flow. In case anyone didn't notice (Accuweather...ahem), the trough in the west is progressing east and digging, not filling!

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... e&itype=wv

This means that, as every model I've seen this morning so far shows, this storm will get pulled into LA, then north along the east side of the soon-to-be central North American trough. Does anyone remember the case last week where the 00Z Gem amplified the storm once it got over land (by baroclinic processes)? Well, most models are showing this now to some degree.

http://meteocentre.com/models/modelscep_e.html
Check out the ECMWF, GEM, UKMET and GFS.

As the TD/TS comes northeast, I believe it will be caught by the trough in the US, and that it will transition into a deepening extratropical low across the TN/OH Valley and/or Lakes. This whole process will be followed by a MAJOR early-season trough in the Central/Eastern US. Any indication of a low along the eastern seaboard will be new development, as I see it now (and probably not tropical).

Also of note is the storm that will affect Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes. This looks to be a big ticket storm as well.

[LaBreeze]

Yes, Jagno, you're right - the gumbo pots are coming out tonight. We can handle the rain, although the ditches and coulees are pretty full where I am and it is still a steady rain falling. Thanks Derek Ortt for your explanation. Had some pretty steady winds this morning and still very breezy. Hmm, should I have chicken and sausage gumbo, or some other kind? In any case, I'll be staying inside once I get home from work.

[hiflyer]

saw that mid atlantic storm tracking towards Bermuda....however does not look that rough for them but the Canadian Maritimes look to be in for a slam

[LaBreeze]

Where do you see this TD/TS coming ashore and when PurdueWx80?

[x-y-no]

Well we can finally figure out what model jb worships this year the crappy GFS. Most reliable models have this thing hitting LA first and then turning ne.

JB is far from the only forecaster at Accuweather. I'm not at all sure why you think he produced this forecast track.

[Hyperstorm]

The track that they're suggesting is not all that "inaccurate". The storm could take this track, but further north and inland over the northern Gulf Coast states. A more northerly turn should occur around the mid-atlantic states as it rounds the base of the trough...

[Thunder44]

Why is this so unbelivable? The storms seem to want to hit Florida this year.

[Air Force Met]

Well we can finally figure out what model jb worships this year the crappy GFS. Most reliable models have this thing hitting LA first and then turning ne.

Not true. He's been down on the GFS all year....talking about it's "antics" and the fact it was crazy. So...he's hardly been worshipping the GFS. JB is pretty much a free thinker and doesn't fall into the trap of model reading. Sometimes this hurts him...sometimes it helps.

[sponger]

Any chance of the shear lessening before it reaches the coast? Also any idea of rain fall impact in NE Fl if it follows the consenus path of N and then NE?