If there is to be any pattern-type development ...

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x-y-no
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If there is to be any pattern-type development ...

#1 Postby x-y-no » Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:36 am

in the Carribean this week (as I suggested last week) it should come out of an enhancing interaction between the weak wave now moving west at 70W south of 22N and the flareup of convection ahead of it in the SW Carribean.

The front reached its maximum southward progression yesterday and is now slowly starting to lift northward, so overall conditions in the Carribean - while not really favorable - should at least not be strongly unfavorable for such development.

I'll be watching that area to see if the convecion is sustained through tonight, and whether any circulation begins at the low level once the wave gets there.

--

If this fails to get itself together into anything (more likely than not) then I don't think anything else can happen at least until the weekend. There's some chance the Gulf is open in that timeframe.
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#2 Postby Steve H. » Mon Oct 18, 2004 11:38 am

Think the SW Caribbean will be something that may time some time to evolve. Probably later in the week/weekend. Check out 12Z Storm east of Virginny!! Quite the bomb. GFS tries also to close a low off in the Carib around that time. Let's see how future model runs depict this. They have been lowering pressures quite a bit, so we'll have to wait and see what comes of it.
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#3 Postby Wnghs2007 » Mon Oct 18, 2004 1:28 pm

Steve H. wrote:Think the SW Caribbean will be something that may time some time to evolve. Probably later in the week/weekend. Check out 12Z Storm east of Virginny!! Quite the bomb. GFS tries also to close a low off in the Carib around that time. Let's see how future model runs depict this. They have been lowering pressures quite a bit, so we'll have to wait and see what comes of it.



I agree lets see how this turns out. :D
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#4 Postby Steve H. » Mon Oct 18, 2004 2:03 pm

Hopefully I'll be able to type by then :wink:
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#5 Postby Wnghs2007 » Mon Oct 18, 2004 2:04 pm

Steve H. wrote:Hopefully I'll be able to type by then :wink:


:roflmao:
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#6 Postby x-y-no » Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:57 am

Looks like this idea is going to bust ... :-)
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#7 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:06 am

Yep we need another strong front/trough to come through and settle into the Carib and that isn't happening anytime soon. Can you say record highs in the 90's in TX?
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