Can Anyone tell me why? I know this is not the place, but.

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farmwx
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Can Anyone tell me why? I know this is not the place, but.

#1 Postby farmwx » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:20 pm

Something strange happened on the sun last week: all the sunspots vanished. This is a sign, say scientists, that solar minimum is coming sooner than expected

October 18, 2004: Six … long … years.

Solar physicist David Hathaway has been checking the sun every day since 1998, and every day for six years there have been sunspots. Sunspots are planet-sized "islands" on the surface of the sun. They are dark, cool, powerfully magnetized, and fleeting: a typical sunspot lasts only a few days or weeks before it breaks up. As soon as one disappears, however, another emerges to take its place.

Even during the lowest ebb of solar activity, you can usually find one or two spots on the sun. But when Hathaway looked on Jan. 28, 2004, there were none. The sun was utterly blank.

It happened again last week, twice, on Oct. 11th and 12th. There were no sunspots.

"This is a sign," says Hathaway, "that the solar minimum is coming, and it's coming sooner than we expected."


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#2 Postby gpickett00 » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:50 pm

does this mean the sun is going to blow up soon or something? does it have any significance to the weather or tropics? thanks for the update, keep em comin!
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#3 Postby yoda » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:52 pm

gpickett00 wrote:does this mean the sun is going to blow up soon or something? does it have any significance to the weather or tropics? thanks for the update, keep em comin!


LOL! No, it does not mean the sun will blow up. It may have significance down the road in weather. What that is, I don't know... you need a pro met to answer that.
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#4 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:54 pm

yoda wrote:
gpickett00 wrote:does this mean the sun is going to blow up soon or something? does it have any significance to the weather or tropics? thanks for the update, keep em comin!


LOL! No, it does not mean the sun will blow up. It may have significance down the road in weather. What that is, I don't know... you need a pro met to answer that.


:roflmao: No the sun is not going to blow for a long long time I hope :D
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:58 pm

gpickett00 wrote:does this mean the sun is going to blow up soon or something? does it have any significance to the weather or tropics? thanks for the update, keep em comin!


10.7 solar flux is nearing the minima, or the time where solar activity is at its least (these cycles typically run 11 years) ... and not unusual during the solar minima ...

The only activity I saw currently is a minor coronal hole which might lead to increased geomagnetic activity over the next 24 hours ... but no significant auroral activity is expected at this time ...

Class B, and C flares are only possible in the next 72 hours in Region 682...but overall, solar activity is expected to remain quiet ...
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#6 Postby Ixolib » Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:06 pm

Must be why the lower channels on my TV has sporatic white static streaming across the screen...
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#7 Postby gpickett00 » Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:06 pm

i was just being sarcastic about the sun blowing up.
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#8 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:28 pm

By the way, in the global forum there is several posts on the latest space weather. As of today there were three observed sunspots.
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#9 Postby farmwx » Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:33 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
gpickett00 wrote:does this mean the sun is going to blow up soon or something? does it have any significance to the weather or tropics? thanks for the update, keep em comin!


10.7 solar flux is nearing the minima, or the time where solar activity is at its least (these cycles typically run 11 years) ... and not unusual during the solar minima ...

The only activity I saw currently is a minor coronal hole which might lead to increased geomagnetic activity over the next 24 hours ... but no significant auroral activity is expected at this time ...

Class B, and C flares are only possible in the next 72 hours in Region 682...but overall, solar activity is expected to remain quiet ...


Since the sun pretty much controls are weather, does this mean a colder winter perhaps?
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:39 pm

With solar minimas, yes, less solar radiation is produced and thusly, chances are better during years with solar minimas that a slightly cooler regime does occur ...

SF
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#11 Postby wxguy25 » Wed Oct 20, 2004 9:50 pm

SF, nice posts. Solar activity is on the decline however there has been quite a bit of month to month variability.

2004 1141 1070 1120 1012 998 974 1185 1110 1030 -999 -999 -999

Turns out this occurs quite frequently following the solar maximum before activity finally quiets down completely.

1993 1210 1426 1364 1159 1124 1093 990 937 870 1003 959 1048
1994 1150 996 904 791 799 773 805 761 790 877 809 774

1983 1423 1226 1186 1189 1371 1386 1250 1244 1090 1124 925 934
1984 1161 1406 1220 1287 1283 1003 893 837 781 735 763 759

1972 1148 1418 1285 1129 1296 1354 1220 1257 1136 1211 1016 1029
1973 1022 987 1004 1050 970 912 845 829 1056 877 815 842

1961 1220 1064 1048 1050 993 1099 1165 1062 1127 967 903 948
1962 949 1022 1003 962 979 910 807 773 895 878 849 820

1950 1507 1433 1378 1643 1571 1287 1341 1209 986 999 1019 1011
1951 1079 1019 1025 1271 1686 1617 1163 1098 1178 1060 1044 1024

its nothing out of the normal. As far as the effects go, the geomagnetic activity (which is responsible for the auroras or northern lights) has the greatest effects in the Polar Regions and on the intensity of the Aleutian and Icelandic lows. 10.7 cm radio flux is felt more in the mid latitudes. Read my posts in the thread below:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=30357
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#12 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:35 pm

In 2003, we saw an anomalous jump in October 2003, which trended back down to pre-solar storm activity by December 2003. 10.7cm solar flux indices, which were in response to the large sunspots and huge solar storms which produced some magnificant auroral displays well away from the poles, and was even visible down here in South Carolina ... and I got to view 2 auroras on two nights ...

Code: Select all

2003  1440 1245 1322 1263 1162 1293 1277 1221 1122 1513 1408 1150
2004  1141 1070 1120 1012  998  974 1185 1110 1030
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