Florida and Japan Landfalls

[Aquawind]

Both countries had recording setting landfalling seasons.. Why?

[Downdraft]

Guess we were just lucky.

[Aslkahuna]

Nature's Slot Machine in the Sky came up Three Lemons for them this year. One year a trend does not make.

Steve

[The Big Dog]

Nature's Slot Machine in the Sky came up Three Lemons for them this year. One year a trend does not make.

Steve

I agree -- for now. I don't know how everyone -- so called "experts" -- can say that this is the start of a 40-year trend. Dr. Gray finally stepped up and said what you just did, don't sell your property and leave the state, just one of those things we have to accept. Until someone proves to me otherwise, I'll just believe that the law of averages finally caught up to us. Some years we'll get none... or one... or four... or eight! Yep, it could be the start of a trend, but speaking as someone who does research for a living, I think we need more data first.

[Steve H.]

Interesting that Gray has been saying for the last 10 years Florida has been so lucky that it hasn't gotten hit by a major cane, then when it does happen he calls it an anomaly Yes I agree where it made landfall was somewhat anomalous, but the idea that Florida would get hit was correct, and that's not an anomaly.

[chadtm80]

Nature's Slot Machine in the Sky came up Three Lemons for them this year. One year a trend does not make.

Steve

Says it all imo

[The Big Dog]

Interesting that Gray has been saying for the last 10 years Florida has been so lucky that it hasn't gotten hit by a major cane, then when it does happen he calls it an anomaly Yes I agree where it made landfall was somewhat anomalous, but the idea that Florida would get hit was correct, and that's not an anomaly.

I believe he was saying that four in a year is an anomaly, not just one major storm.

[Rainband]

Nature's Slot Machine in the Sky came up Three Lemons for them this year. One year a trend does not make.

Steve

lets hope so.

[StormChasr]

this is the start of a 40-year trend.

Start of a trend? I do believe we have been having significant hurricanes and increased activity since the EARLY 1990's (Andrew was rather significant). That would put us in the middle of a more active period for storms in GENERAL. As to one location being a "hurricane magnet," theoretically ANYWHERE on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, from the Carolinas to Texas is at risk at any given time. The "3 lemon" concept makes a lot of sense--mathematical probabilities tend to classify 2004 as a 100 year probability event.

There will always be landfalling systems--it would be highly unlikely for a repeat of 2004. Basically, this year was a lesson in vigilance for all of us.

[Aquawind]

Ok then..It's official were going with the slot machine theory..I was just wondering what science applies to so many landfalls. I would rather play the card games you give yourself a better chance..lol What happens when we hit the jackpot with some of these newer machines..geesh 12 lemons would be pretty nasty..

[StormChasr]

I was just wondering what science applies to so many landfalls.

Nature

[HurricaneBill]

Florida hurricane landfalls since 1950:

1950: Hurricane Easy Category 3 on west coast
1950: Hurricane King Category 3 on east coast

1953: Hurricane Florence Category 1 on panhandle

1956: Hurricane Flossy Category 1 on panhandle

1960: Hurricane Donna Category 4 on Keys and SW coast

1964: Hurricane Cleo Category 2 on east coast
1964: Hurricane Dora Category 2 on NE coast
1964: Hurricane Isbell Category 2 on SW coast

1965: Hurricane Betsy Category 3 on east coast

1966: Hurricane Alma Category 2 on panhandle
1966: Hurricane Inez Category 1 on Keys

1968: Hurricane Gladys Category 2 on west coast

1972: Hurricane Agnes Category 1 on panhandle

1975: Hurricane Eloise Category 3 on panhandle

1979: Hurricane David Category 2 on east coast

1985: Hurricane Kate Category 2 on panhandle

1987: Hurricane Floyd Category 1 on Keys

1992: Hurricane Andrew Category 5 on east coast

1995: Hurricane Erin Category 1 on east coast and Category 2 on panhandle
1995: Hurricane Opal Category 3 on panhandle

1998: Hurricane Earl Category 1 on panhandle
1998: Hurricane Georges Category 2 on Keys

1999: Hurricane Irene Category 1 on Keys and south coast

2004: Hurricane Charley Category 4 on SW coast
2004: Hurricane Frances Category 2 on east coast
2004: Hurricane Jeanne Category 3 on east coast

[StormChasr]

An average of one every 2.45 years--thus 4 in one year is a statistical anomaly.