Tropical Depression/Storm before Hispanola?

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 5:35 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looking like it could happen....

#2 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 7:26 am

The only thing I see is a possible frontal low developing a few hundred miles NE of the Bahamas. That little swirl east of the islands is gonna get torn apart by that front to the west. With fronts dipping far into the tropics( this is November remember?) the chances of anything tropical spinning up are slim at best.

TS Zack · #3 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 7:37 am

We won't see any tropical development from tis if any development. Just looks like the models want to pick up on a fontal low.

#4 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 7:52 am

I sure don't see anything that I think could develop nor does the NHC.

Website · #5 Postby **Brent** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 9:55 am

No. The season is over. Time for a new hobby.

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 10:00 am

vbhoutex wrote:I sure don't see anything that I think could develop nor does the NHC.

I agree.. My attention has shifted to the Winter Forum :froze:

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 10:37 am

Brent wrote:No. The season is over. Time for a new hobby.

Season is not "officially" over, however meteorologically it appears to be over. Conditions are not the same as they were this time last year. We are now into weak El Nino conditions which we did not have at this time last year.

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 12:36 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Brent wrote:No. The season is over. Time for a new hobby.

Season is not "officially" over, however meteorologically it appears to be over. Conditions are not the same as they were this time last year. We are now into weak El Nino conditions which we did not have at this time last year.

Yes ... like in 2002, the North Atlantic was plagued with cutoff lows and NO sustainable subtropical ridges ... Oct NAO indices were quite amazingly NEG which actually was quite a detriment, b/c of all the cutoff lows in the W ATL ...

And again, in years during this active streak with late season Caribbean development, those particular seasons also saw early season developments in those regions ... this year did not... and I'm NOT surprised at the overall shut down since actually practically Ivan ... (Matthew and Nicole were barely quantifiable as entities)

SF

#9 Postby **hurricanemike** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:34 pm

If it was totally over, then why is there a possible low-level invest on Wed. afternoon (10/2000Z).

#10 Postby **wxguy25** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:40 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
Brent wrote:No. The season is over. Time for a new hobby.

Season is not "officially" over, however meteorologically it appears to be over. Conditions are not the same as they were this time last year. We are now into weak El Nino conditions which we did not have at this time last year.

Yes ... like in 2002, the North Atlantic was plagued with cutoff lows and NO sustainable subtropical ridges ... Oct NAO indices were quite amazingly NEG which actually was quite a detriment, b/c of all the cutoff lows in the W ATL ...

And again, in years during this active streak with late season Caribbean development, those particular seasons also saw early season developments in those regions ... this year did not... and I'm NOT surprised at the overall shut down since actually practically Ivan ... (Matthew and Nicole were barely quantifiable as entities)

SF

Yep, typical El Nino/West QBO conditions

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:56 pm

Lets see if recon goes out, and if they find OTTO.

#12 Postby **MGC** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 5:59 pm

Don't get your hopes up with this system. If anything happens it will be totally frontal in nature. With a weak El Nino kicking in (just as I forecast way back in the spring) I doubt we see another system.....MGC

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:21 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Lets see if recon goes out, and if they find OTTO.

#14 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 10:42 pm

Rainband wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:Lets see if recon goes out, and if they find OTTO.

Yep, that is definitely the fat lady singing!!!! :eek:

#15 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Tue Nov 09, 2004 8:16 am

The convection is very impressive this morning, but it looks to be heading a bit east of Hispaniola, towards Puerto Rico. The major flooding threat I mentioned for Haiti may instead be for PR. Even if the storm doesn't congeal, it looks like a major hose will be aimed straight at the island...that means major rains as the moist air is lifted over the mountains on the island. I hope PR is prepared for the worst.

Scorpion · #16 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Nov 09, 2004 10:14 am

Come to Florida and give us a strong TS.

Tropical Depression/Storm before Hispanola?

Tropical Depression/Storm before Hispanola?

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