NHC sees some potential for 92L to become Tropical/Sub Otto

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cycloneye
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NHC sees some potential for 92L to become Tropical/Sub Otto

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:13 pm

Non-tropical 1003 mb low is several hundred miles SSW of the
Azores. However convection has been increasing near the low and
water temperatures remain considerably above average in that
area. Any signs of baroclinicity are fading with no fronts
attached to the low and the area is becoming more separate from
a larger area of low/mid clouds. There is the potential for
subtropical/tropical development in the next 36 hours.


The above from the 1 PM EST discussion.But if it develops into a Subtropical/Tropical storm it wont be of a long duration.Interesting that the sst's are still very warm that far north and east in the atlantic and that may have to do with the Thermoline Circulation that causes more warmer waters in the atlantic.
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7 PM EST Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:01 pm

NON-TROPICAL 1000 MB LOW OVER THE E ATLC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SSW OF THE AZORES NEAR 30N34W. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY FALLING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS DESPITE THE LOW BEING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW.
ADDITIONALLY...DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WITH SOME INDICATION OF THIS ACTIVITY WRAPPING AROUND THE N
SEMICIRCLE. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING AS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NLY FLOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE
UPON THE SYSTEM.


The above is the 7 PM EST discussion about 92L

Time may be running out for 92L but a small window still is there to develop into a subtropical cyclone.
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