Verification report of 2004 season by Dr Gray

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 4/nov2004/

Read it and any comments are welcomed about this report.

Note

In the verification report the numbers that are there are 14/8/6 but this was made before the NHC made the change to a hurricane for Gaston and the change means the numbers for 2004 are 14/9/6.

[yoda]

Thanks for posting that Luis. I was looking forward to that.

[cycloneye]

3.1 Special Characteristics of the 2004 Hurricane Season
The 2004 hurricane season was unique with its number of U.S. landfalling storms and in a number of other ways:


There were no named storms before August 1 (Alex). This is the latest start of an Atlantic hurricane season since 2000 (Alberto, August 4).

The season accumulated 228 NTC units. This is the second highest value since 1950. Only 1950 with 230 NTC units had more.

23 intense hurricane days were accrued during the season. The 1950-2000 seasonal average for intense hurricane days was 5.0. 2004 had 4.6 times the average number of seasonal intense hurricane days during the months of August and September. The 2004 season is tied with 1926 for the most intense hurricane days observed in a single hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center was writing advisories on one or more storms for 41 consecutive days between August 25 - October 3.

August and September were incredibly active months. August 2004 had 86 NTC units, the highest NTC on record for that month, and September 2004 had 134 NTC units, the second highest NTC observed since 1950, trailing only September 1961 (141 NTC units).

The combined August-September NTC of 220 is the most on record extending back to 1950.

August had more named storms (8) and intense hurricanes (3) than any August on record.

September had more intense hurricane days (17.75) than any September on record.

Although the seasonal NTC was extremely high (228), October was very inactive with an NTC of only 9 (average NTC is 17). The most active season since 1950 with an October NTC value of 9 or less was 1989, which had an October NTC value of 6 and a seasonal NTC value of 130.

Four hurricanes made landfall along the United States coastline (Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne). This is the first time that four or more hurricanes have made landfall since 1985 when six hurricanes made landfall (Bob, Danny, Elena, Gloria, Juan and Kate).

Three hurricanes made landfall in the state of Florida (Charley, Frances and Jeanne). This is the first time that this has occurred since 1964 (Cleo, Dora and Isbell).

Two major hurricanes made landfall in the state of Florida (Charley and Jeanne). The last time this occurred was 1950 (Baker and Easy).

Alex became the most intense hurricane to develop north of 38°N when it reached an intensity of 105 knots. This eclipses the old record of 100 knots set by Hurricane Ellen in 1973.

Charley became the first major hurricane to strike Florida since Opal (1995). Charley was the first Category 4 or greater hurricane to strike Florida since Andrew (1992).

Ivan became the longest-lived intense hurricane on record (10.0 IHD) eclipsing the old record held by the Miami Hurricane of 1926 (9.25 IHD).

Ivan recorded a minimum sea level pressure reading of 910 mb on September 11. This is the most intense hurricane since Mitch (1998) when a minimum sea level pressure of 905 mb was recorded.

Frances and Ivan combined for 17.25 IHD this year. This eclipses the old record set in 2003 by Fabian and Isabel of 15.5 IHD.

Frances and Ivan accounted for 107 NTC units.

Jeanne was the first major hurricane to strike Florida north of West Palm Beach and south of the Georgia/South Carolina border since 1893.

Six intense hurricanes formed this year (Alex, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl) tying with 1961 and 1996 for the second most intense hurricanes since 1950. 1950 had seven major hurricanes.

Eight named storms made landfall this year (Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Gaston, Hermine, Ivan, Jeanne and Matthew). This is the most storms that have made landfall since 1916 when eight named storms also made landfall.

I extracted from the long verification report from Dr Gray the special things that occured during the 2004 season.

[sponger]

What is really amazing is that although Ivan will not be counted, its main impact was Florida. I know, the eye was in Alabama, but I still add one to the major category for Florida.

[cycloneye]

Florida's Future Hurricane Seasons
Floridians should view this year's onslaught of hurricane activity as a rare anomaly. This year's landfalling hurricane activity does not by itself represent the beginning or the end of any cycle or trend for landfalling hurricanes. This year will have no bearing on what will occur in future years anymore than the great paucity of Florida landfalling major hurricanes between 1966-2003 had any bearing on this year's landfalling systems. The probability of having hurricane-spawned winds, rain, and storm surge at any spot in any year along the U.S. coastline is very low. We would not recommend that anyone move out of Florida or decide not to move to Florida solely because of the threat of hurricanes. Florida hurricanes must be accepted as one small negative of an otherwise pleasant climate.


The above is an extract from the verification report from Dr Gray in the part that talks about the future of Florida in terms of hurricane landfalls.He says to Floridians dont move from the state despite the increased landfall activity for Florida in past years.

[CharleySurvivor]

Thanks for posting! Interesting facts, and also... I'm not moving