93L invest is up for gale low in Atlantic

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cycloneye
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93L invest is up for gale low in Atlantic

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 26, 2004 5:43 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Wow things are going fast with this at the NHC office in coordination with the Navy.Let's see what happens if this gale center turns into a subtropical system.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Nov 26, 2004 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Nov 26, 2004 6:10 pm

WOW! Dare I say it, come on Otto!
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 26, 2004 6:35 pm

Sweet!!!!! The fight seems not to be over!!!!
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 26, 2004 6:38 pm

Image
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#5 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Nov 26, 2004 6:52 pm

WOW. AWSOME!!!!! COME ON OTTO!!!!!
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 27, 2004 8:24 am


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL932004) ON 20041127 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041127 1200 041128 0000 041128 1200 041129 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.4N 44.3W 26.8N 45.1W 27.7N 45.5W 28.9N 46.2W
BAMM 26.4N 44.3W 26.9N 45.8W 27.5N 47.0W 28.3N 48.5W
A98E 26.4N 44.3W 26.3N 45.0W 26.9N 44.3W 29.3N 45.0W
LBAR 26.4N 44.3W 26.9N 44.4W 28.2N 44.6W 29.6N 45.1W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041129 1200 041130 1200 041201 1200 041202 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.7N 47.7W 34.9N 51.7W 39.0N 47.6W 43.6N 36.3W
BAMM 29.4N 50.4W 32.3N 53.9W 34.1N 50.6W 33.9N 40.7W
A98E 31.2N 45.1W 31.8N 43.5W 32.5N 39.0W 36.2N 34.7W
LBAR 31.3N 46.0W 35.8N 47.7W 39.4N 43.6W 45.5N 30.6W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 61KTS 58KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 61KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.4N LONCUR = 44.3W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 26.8N LONM12 = 43.2W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 26.5N LONM24 = 41.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 350NM RD34SE = 600NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The 12:00 UTC models show a storm intensitywise here but first convection has to wrap around to have Otto even some bursts may get to it.
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#7 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Nov 27, 2004 12:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL932004) ON 20041127 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041127 1200 041128 0000 041128 1200 041129 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.4N 44.3W 26.8N 45.1W 27.7N 45.5W 28.9N 46.2W
BAMM 26.4N 44.3W 26.9N 45.8W 27.5N 47.0W 28.3N 48.5W
A98E 26.4N 44.3W 26.3N 45.0W 26.9N 44.3W 29.3N 45.0W
LBAR 26.4N 44.3W 26.9N 44.4W 28.2N 44.6W 29.6N 45.1W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041129 1200 041130 1200 041201 1200 041202 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.7N 47.7W 34.9N 51.7W 39.0N 47.6W 43.6N 36.3W
BAMM 29.4N 50.4W 32.3N 53.9W 34.1N 50.6W 33.9N 40.7W
A98E 31.2N 45.1W 31.8N 43.5W 32.5N 39.0W 36.2N 34.7W
LBAR 31.3N 46.0W 35.8N 47.7W 39.4N 43.6W 45.5N 30.6W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 61KTS 58KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 61KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.4N LONCUR = 44.3W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 26.8N LONM12 = 43.2W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 26.5N LONM24 = 41.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 350NM RD34SE = 600NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The 12:00 UTC models show a storm intensitywise here but first convection has to wrap around to have Otto even some bursts may get to it.


Let hope we get a couple of good sustained burst to hurry up because that frontal system is coming on quick. :eek:
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18:00 UTC Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 27, 2004 3:27 pm


TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL932004) ON 20041127 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041127 1800 041128 0600 041128 1800 041129 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 44.4W 27.3N 44.4W 28.8N 44.5W 30.4N 45.4W
BAMM 26.2N 44.4W 27.1N 45.2W 28.1N 46.2W 29.2N 47.5W
A98E 26.2N 44.4W 26.3N 44.6W 27.1N 43.4W 29.7N 45.0W
LBAR 26.2N 44.4W 26.9N 43.9W 28.3N 43.7W 29.8N 43.7W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041129 1800 041130 1800 041201 1800 041202 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.6N 46.8W 37.0N 49.0W 42.3N 43.9W 47.7N 33.5W
BAMM 30.7N 49.1W 33.7N 51.0W 36.3N 45.6W 36.7N 35.2W
A98E 31.6N 46.2W 33.9N 44.8W 36.7N 39.7W 39.7N 31.1W
LBAR 31.6N 44.1W 35.1N 44.9W 39.9N 40.3W 43.7N 28.2W
SHIP 56KTS 62KTS 65KTS 62KTS
DSHP 56KTS 62KTS 65KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.2N LONCUR = 44.4W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 26.7N LONM12 = 43.8W DIRM12 = 248DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 26.8N LONM24 = 42.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 350NM RD34SE = 600NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

As I see these models data this afternoon at 18:00 UTC it suggests to me that shear will fade in the next couple of days because they increase this system to a hurricane in 96 hours so let's see what happens but it needs to begin to burst to then have the chance to be subtropical or even tropical.If the shear goes away then dang we have Otto.
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Re: 18:00 UTC Models

#9 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Nov 27, 2004 3:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:
TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL932004) ON 20041127 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041127 1800 041128 0600 041128 1800 041129 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.2N 44.4W 27.3N 44.4W 28.8N 44.5W 30.4N 45.4W
BAMM 26.2N 44.4W 27.1N 45.2W 28.1N 46.2W 29.2N 47.5W
A98E 26.2N 44.4W 26.3N 44.6W 27.1N 43.4W 29.7N 45.0W
LBAR 26.2N 44.4W 26.9N 43.9W 28.3N 43.7W 29.8N 43.7W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041129 1800 041130 1800 041201 1800 041202 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.6N 46.8W 37.0N 49.0W 42.3N 43.9W 47.7N 33.5W
BAMM 30.7N 49.1W 33.7N 51.0W 36.3N 45.6W 36.7N 35.2W
A98E 31.6N 46.2W 33.9N 44.8W 36.7N 39.7W 39.7N 31.1W
LBAR 31.6N 44.1W 35.1N 44.9W 39.9N 40.3W 43.7N 28.2W
SHIP 56KTS 62KTS 65KTS 62KTS
DSHP 56KTS 62KTS 65KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.2N LONCUR = 44.4W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 26.7N LONM12 = 43.8W DIRM12 = 248DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 26.8N LONM24 = 42.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 350NM RD34SE = 600NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


As I see these models data this afternoon at 18:00 UTC it suggests to me that shear will fade in the next couple of days because they increase this system to a hurricane in 96 hours so let's see what happens but it needs to begin to burst to then have the chance to be subtropical or even tropical.If the shear goes away then dang we have Otto.


Thats cool. Hopefully something will happen so we can get OTTO.
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 27, 2004 4:00 pm

Actually, more of a baroclinically charged development now ... another mid/upper low is spinning up to the west of the invest and very strong westerly winds are cutting into and undercutting the invest to the south ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#11 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Nov 27, 2004 4:06 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Actually, more of a baroclinically charged development now ... another mid/upper low is spinning up to the west of the invest and very strong westerly winds are cutting into and undercutting the invest to the south ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


So would this basically mean that the chances for this to become OTTO are going down the drain?
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 27, 2004 4:16 pm

Surely as more shear impacts the system less the chance to turn subtropical.
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#13 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Nov 27, 2004 4:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:Surely as more shear impacts the system less the chance to turn subtropical.


Well it was nice while it tried to score.
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#14 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Nov 27, 2004 6:27 pm

How many times in the past 2 months have we seen these things out there and not develop? :lol: I don't think this one will be any different, but just in case I keep an eye on it.
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#15 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Nov 27, 2004 7:07 pm

Thunder44 wrote:How many times in the past 2 months have we seen these things out there and not develop? :lol: I don't think this one will be any different, but just in case I keep an eye on it.


Yeah I know. IT gets very irratating. I wanted to see another storm. THE SEASON ENDED WAY TO FAST :(
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 27, 2004 7:14 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:How many times in the past 2 months have we seen these things out there and not develop? :lol: I don't think this one will be any different, but just in case I keep an eye on it.


Yeah I know. IT gets very irratating. I wanted to see another storm. THE SEASON ENDED WAY TO FAST :(


Thanks to the weak el nino. :)
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#17 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Nov 27, 2004 7:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:How many times in the past 2 months have we seen these things out there and not develop? :lol: I don't think this one will be any different, but just in case I keep an eye on it.


Yeah I know. IT gets very irratating. I wanted to see another storm. THE SEASON ENDED WAY TO FAST :(


Thanks to the weak el nino. :)


Well then I guess it is not that bad. Because that is making the STJ active right now. And hopefully will thru the winter providing numerous winter storm threats :D
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#18 Postby Rainband » Sat Nov 27, 2004 7:29 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:How many times in the past 2 months have we seen these things out there and not develop? :lol: I don't think this one will be any different, but just in case I keep an eye on it.


Yeah I know. IT gets very irratating. I wanted to see another storm. THE SEASON ENDED WAY TO FAST :(
tell that to the floridians
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From the first data no changes to the T numbers for 93L.

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 27, 2004 7:29 pm

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/2345 UTC 26.4N 44.1W ST1.5/1.5 90
27/1815 UTC 26.2N 44.4W ST1.5/1.5 90
27/1145 UTC 26.4N 44.3W ST1.5/1.5 90
27/0545 UTC 26.7N 43.8W ST1.5/1.5 90
26/2345 UTC 26.6N 43.0W ST1.5/1.5 90

From the first data from SSD there has not been any changes of the T numbers for 93L.Only the latituds and longituds are changing but not a lot as the gale low is crawling out there.
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#20 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Nov 27, 2004 7:35 pm

Rainband wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:How many times in the past 2 months have we seen these things out there and not develop? :lol: I don't think this one will be any different, but just in case I keep an eye on it.


Yeah I know. IT gets very irratating. I wanted to see another storm. THE SEASON ENDED WAY TO FAST :(
tell that to the floridians


Hmmmmm. well yeah. But it still ended to fast.
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