WTPS21 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 122051ZDEC2004//
RMKS/
1. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8S2 172.2E2 TO 18.4S3 174.4E6 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121730Z4 INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9 173.0E1. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.4S9 173.0E1, APPROXIMATELY
385 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
A 121807Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE, AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132100Z7.//
