Drought-bearing El Nino officially over (Australia)

[Anonymous]

The National Climate Centre says the drought-causing El Nino is officially over.

Meteorologist Grant Beard says this winter should bring a return to normal rainfall patterns, and there is even the moderate possibility of a La Nina system, which usually brings flooding.

Mr Beard says he cannot rule out the El Nino re-forming, but it looks very unlikely at this stage.

"The temperature, wind and cloud data from the Pacific clearly show that neutral conditions have become established across the Pacific and the El Nino pattern has basically completely disappeared," Mr Beard said.






Just a few more weeks until we release our seasonal forecast.

[Anonymous]

El Niño Wrap-Up

The El Niño of 2002/03 has finished. Temperature, wind and cloud data from the Pacific clearly show the establishment of neutral conditions. Below average temperatures have developed on the surface in the eastern Pacific, and below the surface in both the central and eastern Pacific. Trade Winds are mostly near average as is central Pacific cloudiness, and the SOI is rising (value for 30 days ending 4th May was –1). Most computer predictions indicate that the current neutral conditions in the Pacific will continue through to the southern spring. Given the recent cooling in the eastern Pacific a La Niña is a clear possibility also. While a regeneration of El Niño cannot be ruled out entirely, this scenario would seem to be the least likely this year. What this means for Australia is that most drought affected areas should see appreciably more winter and spring rains in 2003 compared with 2002.