Why weak EL nino = dry and warm FL

[boca]

Why is are weather like this if their is a weak EL Nino out there?The national weather service in Miami was predicting cooler and wetter, so far warm and dry.Does the EL Nino even affect the weather this far south. I know about the trough in the west,but does wet and cool conditions only play a role when the trough is in the East along with the weak EL Nino in place.

[weatherwindow]

good morning boca....i agree, it does seem contradictory. yes, the early prediction, given a weak el nino, was wetter and cooler. however, the latest ncep long range forecast is for "average" conditions across fla and the southeast, despite the continuing el nino. IMO, several factors are at work. first, the pattern of warming in the equatorial pacific is not typical. it has been restricted to the central pacific area(el nino 3,4). the classical el nino warming of the eastern pacific, particularly the extreme eastern pacific(el nino 1,2), has not occurred thus far. i feel that this may be the root cause of the absence of a "normal" el nino winter in the usa. secondly, it appears that, as you stated, the excessive rainfall in scal is more related to the long wave pattern(trough-ridge) than el nino induced. the persistent ridge in the southeast is, in turn, keeping us bone dry. .....hope to have shed some light on it.......rich