Tropical Cyclone 02B

[HURAKAN]

Well, this will be the 2nd tropical cyclone in a month and almost on the same spot where TD 1B developed a week ago. I hope the system remains over open water since there is no part of the Bay of Bengal that is not already heavily affected by the deadly tsunami.

[HURAKAN]

The JTWC continues to wait to upgrade the disturbance SE of Sri Lanka to TC 02B even though it displays a good CDO of convection concentrated probably near the center, and Dvorak estimates winds around 35 mph.

[HURAKAN]

NICE LOOKING SYSTEM!

[Hurricanehink]

Yep, 2B. This is pretty strange for the NIO. Normally, don't they only get like 5 storms in an entire year?

[HURAKAN]

SLOW & ERRATIC MOVEMENT!

[HurricaneBill]

Yep, 2B. This is pretty strange for the NIO. Normally, don't they only get like 5 storms in an entire year?

The NIO is a weird basin. Some years, they've had as few as 2 storms. While in other years, they've had as many as 10 storms.

[cycloneye]

It looks like it will not threat Sri Lanka as it will move northward east of there.They dont need anymore disasters after the Tsunami.

[HurricaneBill]

It looks like it will not threat Sri Lanka as it will move northward east of there.They dont need anymore disasters after the Tsunami.

That's a relief. However, it looks like it's heading into an area more favorable for development. It's NE movement could bring it towards Bangladesh, which was pretty much the only country in the region spared from the tsunami.

The continental shelf was one of the reasons Bangladesh was spared. Also, Bangladesh was warned and able to prepare.

However, the coast of Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to cyclones.

[Hurricanehink]

The last time there was one tropical cyclone in January here was in 1999, but there has never been a year with 2 tropical cyclones in January.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Cyclone 01B, 1999.

[P.K.]

WTIO31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 4.2N6 86.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.2N6 86.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 4.2N6 86.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 4.5N9 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 4.9N3 85.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 5.8N3 86.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 7.8N5 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 4.2N6 86.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CYCLING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AFTER 12 HOURS
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK POLEWARD AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3, 162100Z0, 170300Z1 AND 170900Z7.//