Tropical Cyclone Felapi; Not Acknowledged By JTWC

[HURAKAN]

A powerful tropical disturbance made landfall on Madagascar's SW coast. The system looked very well-organizated and Dvorak estimates winds around 40 mph or 2.5. The JTWC doesn't have the system as a tropical disturbance, no mention at all. Monterey NRL has it as Invest 94S with winds at 25 knots. What makes important this system is that it's battering the same area affected by the powerful cyclone Ernest just a few days ago.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't know about a "tropical disturbance" because that looks like a tropical storm to me. Where doe's these goverments find some of these forecasters?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

FELAPI

Dernier point relevé à ce jour

Date 27/01/2005 à 1800 UTC
Position 22.1 Sud et 42 Est
Type TEMPETE_TROPICALE_MODEREE
Pression estimée au centre 996 hpa
Vent Max 35 Noeuds
Déplacement EST
Vitesse de déplacement 5 Noeuds

[HURAKAN]

FELAPI

Dernier point relevé à ce jour

Date 27/01/2005 à 1800 UTC
Position 22.1 Sud et 42 Est
Type TEMPETE_TROPICALE_MODEREE
Pression estimée au centre 996 hpa
Vent Max 35 Noeuds
Déplacement EST
Vitesse de déplacement 5 Noeuds

That's very much for the information. Since I didn't have any substantial information to write the heading as "tropical storm" I decided to put "strong tropical disturbance" even though I believed it already was a tropical storm based on Dvorak.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Cyclone Felapi






Extremely good website for the SW Indian Ocean:

http://www.mtotec.com

[Aslkahuna]

The JTWC forecasters are US Air Force/Navy and US Civilian forecasters. However, they also do NOT have Primary responsibility for storms in that area and will usually wait until the appropriate RSMC issues the advisories before they put their own out. At the moment the disturbance is overland so the wind speeds right now are probably below TS intensity.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN SURFACE MAP

[Typhoon_Willie]

System to the upper right of Madagascar looks pretty impressive!

[senorpepr]

The JTWC forecasters are US Air Force/Navy and US Civilian forecasters. However, they also do NOT have Primary responsibility for storms in that area and will usually wait until the appropriate RSMC issues the advisories before they put their own out. At the moment the disturbance is overland so the wind speeds right now are probably below TS intensity.

Steve

...and to piggy-back on that statement, a majority of the operational forecasters at the JTWC do not have meteorology degrees, but have gone through plenty of training courses. Also, not only do they not have primary responsibility for this region, but they do not have any operational interests (as far as I know) in this region, besides the US Embassies.

[wlfpack81]

senorpepr...nail head..

I figured there were no military interests in this region so no worry to JTWC. JTWC will normally concentrate on storms in regions where the U.S. has a military presence. So they didn't acknowledge this system but it indeed was a tropical cyclone though it didn't reach the strength of Ernest.

[senorpepr]

senorpepr...nail head..

I figured there were no military interests in this region so no worry to JTWC. JTWC will normally concentrate on storms in regions where the U.S. has a military presence. So they didn't acknowledge this system but it indeed was a tropical cyclone though it didn't reach the strength of Ernest.

I agree. In my opinion, the JTWC should have at atleast acknowledged the system. I've always felt a standardization should be in place for these types of things, led by the WMO. I know there is some limited standardization, but all of the RMSCs should be on the same page.