T numbers for disturbance at EPAC

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

1.0 T numbers(25kts) haved been given to this system as the wind field is increasing as this T number thing is done by sattellite estimates.This system really is organizing as today the convection is more concentrated near the surface low.The conditions are favorable for it to be a tropical depression tommorow or tuesday.

[Anonymous]

There are two EPAC disturbances right now. We have one approaching 115W, and another near 100W. Both, actually, have been slowly improving in organization over the past several days. The one furthest west is rather small in size, though its circulation remains well defined. Unfortunately, this low is moving into very hostile conditions, so I do not expect this low to become classified.

The one to the east is the one with T numbers. This low is larger in size, and also has an impressive circulation associated with it. The convection pattern, although going through diurnal minimum, is well established. Conditions ahead of this low are actually somewhat favorable, and a lot of the guidance models are picking up on it. Slow development over the next few days seems reasonable. And I'm certainly not ruling out the possibility of it reaching TD strength.

[wx247]

Yes... satellite images definitely show organization with the system near 100W. Looks like we will probably see the first tropical depression of EPAC in a day or so.

[cycloneye]

Rob they classified the more west system as too weak but let's see if later on they put T numbers on that one or drop it as you said it will enter more cooler waters and upper enviroment not as favorable.

[Stormsfury]

In the last couple of hours or so, the disturbance (Tropical Low) convection continues to become better organized. Development to a depression may occur in 24 to 36 hours.

[Derek Ortt]

The low near 100W has become better organized, though its convective structure is not nearly as well defined as the one further to then west in that the convection is not co-located with the center and is chaotic in nature. However, it is becoming better organized and in this evenigns nwhhc epac outlook, I actually said it could become a TD within the next 24 hours

http://www.nwhhc.com/gpage1.html



FYI, these outlooks are issued regularly, but I dont post the link to nwhhc here everytime that an update is made, plus, I wont be making the majority of the forecasts anyways later in the season, so feel free at any time to stop by the nwhhc web site

[Stormsfury]

The low near 100W has become better organized, though its convective structure is not nearly as well defined as the one further to then west in that the convection is not co-located with the center and is chaotic in nature. However, it is becoming better organized and in this evenigns nwhhc epac outlook, I actually said it could become a TD within the next 24 hours.

Good discussion, Derek ... there's probably going to be a redevelopment of a new low (or another low) closer to the deeper convection, probably overnight, as strong convection continues to flare up around 103-104W ...

[cycloneye]

Yes the two systems are in oposed circunstances as the one most west has a well defined circulation but less convection and the system to the east has much more convection but not a well defined circulation but I think this system that is more to the east will turn into a TD because upper conditions are favorable.

[Derek Ortt]

I would actually look for the convection to develop closer to the center instead of a new center forming under the deep convection. Then center near 100 is fairly well defined, so a relocation may not occur

[weatherlover427]

Hi all,

I live in SW California. What does this system's future look like?

[cycloneye]

The T numbers are up to 1.5 indicating that this system is organizing and a tropical depression is forming so later today or tonight we may have TD 1-E.

Josh this system looks like it will turn into a storm in the comming days but dont worrie there in California because it is rare that a system goes there.

[Rainband]

Rare JOSH.. but not impossible!!! Keep us posted on the developments..Thanks guys...!!!

[chadtm80]

WOOOOO HOOOOOOO

Real Live Action.. LOL

[chadtm80]

19/0832 UTC 9.8N 132.5E T2.0/2.0 03W -- West Pacific Ocean
19/0832 UTC 7.0N 149.4E T1.5/1.5 04W -- West Pacific Ocean

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... acific.htm

[cycloneye]

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... fxxt03.txt

Here is the UKMET model that shows 3 systems 2 at the WPAC and 1 at the EPAC but you have to scroll down to see the positions of the EPAC system.The one at the EPAC is the one we are watching for days that is organizing slowly and looks like it will be the first TD of the EPAC in this 2003 season.But that model shows that this system will be a weak storm but that could change with more information in the next runs.But definitly for the first time in the EPAC we will see a system forming into a TD and if conditions are right into tropical storm Andres.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... acific.htm

[wx247]

Thanks. Keep the info. coming!

[weatherlover427]

I was just wondering if we could get some remnants from the system or not, that's all.

[wx247]

I think it should stay well to your South or SW.