Tropical Cyclone WILLY (23S)

[HURAKAN]

08/2025 UTC 12.8S 120.0E T1.5/1.5 90S -- South Indian Ocean

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:00pm WST on Tuesday the 8th of March 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

There are indications of a weak low near 11S 119E. This low is expected to move
to the west southwest over the next few days and gradually develop. Computer
models suggest that this low may develop into a tropical cyclone later this
week. By Friday the low is expected to be near 15S 110E and moving further west
of 110E.

Tropical Low well to the north of the State
Location : approx. near 11S 119E
about 800 kilometres [435 nautical miles] north northwest of Broome
Central Pressure : 1010 hPa

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Wednesday : low
Thursday : moderate
Friday : high

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

There are no other lows evident in the region.

Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S7 118.7E7,
APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
THAT HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 081013Z3 QUIKSCAT
PASS DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center



THERE IS NO DISCUSSION THAT THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN HAS BEEN IN EXTREMELY QUIET STATE SINCE A MONTH AGO WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE VIVIENNE (17S) DEVELOPED IN THE SAME AREA THIS DISTURBED AREA IS LOCATED. LIKE BoM MENTIONS, COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA IN THE DAYS TO COME. THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAS TAKEN STRAIGHT THE NUMBERS 18 - 22, REALLY ACTIVE SEASON IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC, DO YOU AGREE?

[HURAKAN]

THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND ITS POSSIBLE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE NEXT NAME TO BE USED IN THE REGION WILL BE "WILLY."

[AussieMark]

I knew this system would be a invest soon as I have been watching it on weather bulletins over the last few days.

This may be the first cyclone off the Australian West Coast this year maybe.

or if it isn't the first there haven't been many previously.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appers we got a well defined LLC with winds of about 15 to 20 knots. I would like to see that LLC tighting up some with 25 to 30 knot winds before the upgrade. Over all the outflow pattern looks good with convectin forming over the center. I say good chance for Willy over the next few days.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _sh_1.html

[wlfpack81]

GFS model was actually picking up on this system as early as Sun (March 6th). Lol I guess a stopped clock is right twice a day right? lol

[AussieMark]

The Forcasters on the australian weather channel say it will be a cyclone over the weekend.

Friday or Saturday or something

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0137UTC 9 MARCH 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Tropical low with central pressure 1002 hPa located at 0100UTC
Within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal zero south [13.0S]
Longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal five [119.5E]
moving southwest at 06 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of centre.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours causing rough
to very rough seas, moderate swell and 30/45 knot winds.

At 1300UTC 9 March 13.7 south 117.4 east 995hPa
At 0100UTC 10 March 14.4 south 115.8 east 990hPa

Next warning issued at 0500 UTC 09 March 2005

TC "WILLY" IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1031UTC 9 MARCH 2005

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Tropical low with central pressure 998 hPa located at 1000UTC
Within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal zero south [13.0S]
Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal seven [118.7E]
and moving west southwest at 7 knots.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of centre.


FORECAST
Low expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 18 hours
causing rough to very rough seas, moderate swell and 35/50 knot winds. Seas
rising to high on an increasing swell by 10/1000 UTC.

At 2200UTC 9 March 13.5 south 117.1 east 990hPa
At 1000UTC 10 March 14.0 south 115.3 east 985hPa

Next warning issued at 1700 UTC 09 March 2005

WEATHER PERTH

ORGANIZATION CONTINUES.

[Gorky]

It's now being recognised as Tropical Cyclone Willy.

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 12:25 am WST on Thursday, 10 March 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Willy [minimum pressure 995 hPa, maximum sustained winds 35
knots] was located at midnight WST near 13.1S 118.0E, that is 710 kilometres
northwest of Broome, and was moving west at 8 knots, slightly away from the
coastline of Western Australia.

This system is expected to intensify during the next 24 hours but will not
affect the WA coast within the next 48 hours.

The next advice will be issued at 7am WST.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1614UTC 9 MARCH 2005

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Willy with central pressure 995 hPa located at 1600UTC
Within 40 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal one south [13.1S]
Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal zero east [118.0E]
and moving west at 8 knots.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles of centre.


FORECAST
Tropical Cyclone Willy is expected to intensify with 30/40 knot winds causing
rough to very rough seas, moderate swell increasing to 45/60 knot winds by 10
March 1600UTC. Seas rising to high on an increasing swell.

At 0400UTC 10 March 13.2 south 115.9 east 985hPa
At 1600UTC 10 March 13.6 south 114.0 east 975hPa

Next warning issued at 2300 UTC 09 March 2005

WEATHER PERTH

AFTER A LONG STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP, TC WILLY FORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA. FORTUNATELY, THIS IS ONLY A MARINE INTEREST.

[HURAKAN]

WILLY IS FINALLY RECOGNIZED AS AN OFFICIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. WILLY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT DAY, MOVEMENT SHOULD BE MOSTLY WSW AND SLOW.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 2235UTC 9 MARCH 2005

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Willy with central pressure 990 hPa relocated at 2200UTC
to within 40 nautical miles of
Latitude fourteen decimal zero south [14.0S]
Longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal five east [117.5E]
and moving southwest at 7 knots.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of centre in northern quadrants, extending to within
120 nautical miles in southern quadrants.


FORECAST
Winds currently 30/40 knots, causing rough to very rough seas, moderate swell.
Tropical Cyclone Willy expected to intensify with winds within 45 nautical miles
of the centre increasing to 45/60 knots with very rough to high seas on an
increasing swell by 10 March 2200 UTC.

At 1000UTC 10 March 14.7 south 116.2 east 985hPa
At 2200UTC 10 March 15.3 south 114.2 east 975hPa

Next warning issued at 0500 UTC 10 March 2005

WEATHER PERTH

TC WILLY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NW OF AUSTRALIA, FORTUNATELY, WILLY WILL JUST BE A MARINE INTEREST FOR THE NEXT DAYS. IMPACT TO LAND IS NOT EXPECTED.

[HURAKAN]

Name: Willy
Severity Category: 1
Situation At: 6AM WST Thursday 10 March 2005
Location: 14.0S 117.5E
Recent Movement: SW at 13 km/h
Remarks: Tropical Cyclone Willy is expected to intensify during the next 24 hours however it will not affect the WA coast within the next 48 hours.


The next track map will be issued by 1:30pm WST.

TC WILLY IS NOW POSSIBLE TO TRACK USING BoM MAP!

[senorpepr]

IDW24000
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 12:50 pm WST on Thursday, 10 March 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Willy [Category 1] was located at noon WST near 14.3S 116.1E,
that is approximately 720 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland, and was
moving west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify during the next 24 hours but will not
affect the WA coast within the next 48 hours.

The next advice will be issued at 7pm WST.

[senorpepr]

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:14S116E999:11:00
PANPAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0418UTC 10 MARCH 2005

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Willy with central pressure 988 hPa located at 0400UTC
to within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude fourteen decimal three south [14.3S]
Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal one east [116.1E]
and moving west southwest at 9 knots.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles of centre extending to within 180 nautical miles in
the southwest quadrant.


FORECAST
Winds currently 30/45 knots, causing rough to very rough seas, moderate swell.
Tropical Cyclone Willy expected to continue to intensify with winds within 45
nautical miles of the centre increasing to 50/65 knots with high to phenomenal
seas on an increasing swell by 0400 UTC 11 March.

At 1600UTC 10 March 15.0 south 114.3 east 980hPa
At 0400UTC 11 March 15.8 south 112.5 east 965hPa

Next warning issued at 1100 UTC 10 March 2005

WEATHER PERTH

[AUSSKY]

9.30pm update on Austrop:

TC WILLY LOCATED NEAR 116.4E AND 15.06S HAS DEVELOPED A MASSIVE AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELD OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME EXTENSIVE AND IMPROVING, LOCATED OVER SST'S NEAR 30°C AND MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 12KPH. CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2130 HRS AEST IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 970HPA AND MAY REACH 950HPA BY 0600HRS AEST 11/03/05....TC WILLY HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPER TC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TRACKING AT THIS STAGE APPEARS TO FAVOUR A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION HOWEVER A MARKED LONG WAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED WEST OF TC WILLY AND MAY INDUCE A MORE SOUTH-EASTERLY MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS.

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/current.htm

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 6:55 pm WST on Thursday, 10 March 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Willy [Category 2] was located at 6pm WST near 14.8S 115.3E,
that is approximately 680 kilometres north northwest of Karratha, and was moving
west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify as it continues to move to the west
southwest but will not impact the WA coast within the next 48 hours.

The next advice will be issued at 1am WST Friday.

TC WILLY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.

[James]

It's also a rather large storm.

[HURAKAN]

TC WILLY BEGINS TO LOOK MORE AND MORE POWERFUL, AND IT'S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BUT ITS LARGE STRUCTURE MAY LIMIT HOW FAST THE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES. SMALL, COMPACT CYCLONES LIKE ANDREW, CHARLEY, INGRID AND MANY MORE ARE ABLE TO INTENSIFY QUICKER TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ITS SMALL SIZE.

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 6:15 am WST on Friday, 11 March 2005
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Severe Tropical Cyclone Willy [Category 3] was located at 6 am WST near 15.9S
113.9E, that is approximately 620 kilometres north northwest of Karratha, and
was moving southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to continue to intensify as it moves to the southwest
but will not impact the WA coast within the next 48 hours.

The next advice will be issued at 1pm WST.

ACCORDING TO THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY OF AUSTRALIA WILLY HAS ALREADY REACHED CATEGORY 3 UNDER THE AUSTRALIAN SYSTEM, WHICH CLASSIFIES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SEVERE.