Is this true..

[wxcrazytwo]

No way this could be true is it?


Drought To Persist In North America Due To La Niña
Experts at the Climate Modeling Group at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), part of The Earth Institute at Columbia University, expect drought to worsen in the Plains and the West over the next several years due to La Niña-like conditions. LDEO's "Persistent Drought in North America" Web site provides an in-depth examination of drought in this region.



The usual water level of Lake Powell on the Colorado River behind Glen Canyon Dam is marked by the white areas; the lake is less than half full due to the recent drought. (Photo credit: Gabriel Gruionu)

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Related section: Earth & Climate





Using observations and models, LDEO scientists learned that all the major dry and wet events in the American West in the last century and a half were forced by slowing varying tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). On the Web site, Climate Modeling Group scientists show that decadal variations of these SSTs are predictable to a modest degree a few years in advance.

The group’s research on whether rising greenhouse gases will induce an El Niño-like (causing increased precipitation over the American West) or La Niña-like (causing less precipitation over the American West) response in the tropical Pacific Ocean provides additional insight on whether the American West is entering a more drought-prone period than any seen since European settlement.

The Climate Modeling Group plans to continue its research, including examining the causes of the severe droughts that occurred during the 12th and 13th centuries.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/04/050428180954.htm

[Aslkahuna]

Well for starters, we would have to get into an ENSO cold phase (La Niña) which is not expected at least for the next several months. The combination of a La Niña and negative PDO phase does a number on our winter rainfall which is the most critical though Niña's are frequently associated with active monsoons. Though these are contributory factors, it is clear that neither is the actual TRIGGER for the Western US Droughts which recur every 20 years on average regardless of the phase of the PDO or ENSO. These droughts on average last about 10 years or so but dendrochronology records show that in AZ they have last up to 40 years. Studies also show that there are occasional wet years interspersed in the drought and so we have to see if this past winter in AZ was an anomaly or the actual precursor to a drought break. I'm leaning towards anomaly.

Steve

[wxcrazytwo]

Wow, thanks Asklahuna for your great observation. I was just wondering.