Models develop fairly intense low in Western Atlantic off EC

[cycloneye]

12z GFS in 72 hours



12z GFS in 96 hours.



12z GFS in 120 hours

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Link to all models.

Looking at this guidance especially from GFS model it looks like we will see a good low pressure in form of a gale low east of the US although not a warm core one and CMC canadien model shows the same but not as intense as the GFS is showing.The only way that this future intense low can develop into a subtropical or tropical entity would be if it sits in a same area when the transition can be made in several days but for those who like to see swirls this one will be a good one to watch.

[James]

Well, it'll be impressive to look at nonetheless.

[cycloneye]

I forgot to say from where this will come from.This low will cross the Florida Penninsula from the Eastern Gulf where it is now with all that convection and rain in a wide area of the EGOM today into the Western Atlantic where it will get stronger than the 1014 mbs it is this afternoon.

[HurricaneBill]

Late season nor'easter? They can happen.

One occured in early June 2003.

I think one occured in late August 1997 but I'm not sure.

[cycloneye]

Late season nor'easter? They can happen.

One occured in early June 2003.

I think one occured in late August 1997 but I'm not sure.

Yeah it may look like one of those but the only difference may be the track that this one will take not riding up the East Coast as normally those classic Nor Easters do but going more EastNortheast to NE into the Western Atlantic out to sea.

[dixiebreeze]

Cycloneye, we are sure being innundated with rain here in W.C. Fla. today! But you're right, the BP is not low at all, so its migration into the W. Atlantic will be interesting, as you pointed out.

[dixiebreeze]

Here we are:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That will not be a tropical cyclone. Look how large it is. That is a extratropical low pressure system/Nor'easter. The chances of this being tropical is abotu 1/1,000,000.

[cycloneye]

That will not be a tropical cyclone. Look how large it is. That is a extratropical low pressure system/Nor'easter. The chances of this being tropical is abotu 1/1,000,000.

Read the first post above.

[MGC]

Considering how cool it has been a late season NorEaster is not out of the question......MGC

[george_r_1961]

It will need to be watched as it nears the Gulf Stream. We need convection organizing near the center on all quads before we can start talking about tropical or subtropical development. Regardless if this system becomes warm core or not it could be a significant coastal storm for the southeast US.

[cycloneye]

It will need to be watched as it nears the Gulf Stream. We need convection organizing near the center on all quads before we can start talking about tropical or subtropical development. Regardless if this system becomes warm core or not it could be a significant coastal storm for the southeast US.

You got it right george.Beach erosion may take place on parts of the East Coast and gale warnings may be up too as the High to the north and the low to the south create a strong pressure gradient.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

By the way at link is the animation of the CMC model which shows at the 00z run the low more stronger than yesterdays runs but not turning into a warm core system.

[Wnghs2007]

That looks to be an nice Gale low pressure area as you said Cycloneye. Will probally be some really nasty conditions under that thing for Sailors in the area.

Wnghs2007