gom verses atlantic

[wxwonder12]

Why are some websites indicaiting that the risk for landfall of a hurricane is greater on the west coast of Florida and some are saying that the risk is greater on the east coast of Florida. Any scientific evidence or just random guesses. Anybody have any thoughts??? Hope none come to Florida.

[MWatkins]

It is my honest opinion that it is WAY too close to call (the width of FL is what 180 NM excluding the panhandle...which is 3 degrees of longitude and well within the error cone for a 72 hour forecast) so obviously I don't have any sites that I believe would be helpful.

However...for a climatological look at things...you can head over to:

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/map.asp

That's a heck of a place to start...

MW

[Derecho]

My personal belief is that seasonal landfall forecasts, at the current level of understanding, are essentially worthless. They may not be worthless in another 5-10 years and there is no harm in trying.

[weatherwindow]

echoing derecho....climatology is normally a better determinant of landfall probability at long range than any of the current forecasts. in the long run, the northeast and southwest coasts of fla have the probability of direct hits(not to include "back door" approaches from over the peninsula). the southeast and northwest coasts have the highest. unfortunately, this doesnt have much predictive value in the short run....evidenced by the charley on the southwest coast and the double landfalls on the east central coast(albeit, this area has a somewhat higher probability than the northeast) last year. we just "roll dem bones" each year

[gtalum]

...the width of FL is what 180 NM excluding the panhandle....

More like half that, isn't it? Maybe 90 miles across at the widest point, except for the Panhandle. Your point stands.

[cyclonaut]

My personal belief is that seasonal landfall forecasts, at the current level of understanding, are essentially worthless. They may not be worthless in another 5-10 years and there is no harm in trying.

I agree with those sentiments.

[cyclonaut]

...the width of FL is what 180 NM excluding the panhandle....

More like half that, isn't it? Maybe 90 miles across at the widest point, except for the Panhandle. Your point stands.

Yeah youre close its about 100 miles in width @ its widest excluding the panhandle.MWatkins did say NM so I dont know exactly how that calculates.

[StormChasr]

Lanfall predictions are not useful. There just isn't sufficient accuracy, and specific time of occurence variables influence the probability so as to make it far too subject to chance.

[Anonymous]

Lanfall predictions are not useful. There just isn't sufficient accuracy, and specific time of occurence variables influence the probability so as to make it far too subject to chance.

Indeed, I agree. THere are many factors that must come into play. One of those factors is the Bermuda High. If the high holds in this year...