Typhoon Nesat (04W)

[senorpepr]

Invest 91W (27/18Z)
5.9N 156.2E
15kt
1006mb

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9N3 156.4E6,
APPROXIMATELY 860 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 271444Z2 AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN
INCREASE OF SURFACE INFLOW INTO A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A TUTT
CELL APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE LLCC AND OUTFLOW IS
BEGINNING TO LINK INTO THE TUTT CELL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AND
850 MB VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.

[senorpepr]

91W doesn't look as developed as it was earlier, but still something to monitor...

Invest 91W (28/00Z)
5.7N 155.4E
15kt
1006mb

[senorpepr]

91W doesn't look as developed as it was earlier, but still something to monitor...

Invest 91W (28/00Z)
5.7N 155.4E
15kt
1006mb

It appears as if there are now Dvorak estimates on this system: T1.0. Although SSD lists it as 90W, the longitude matches 91W rather than 90W.

[senorpepr]

Interesting... as I was thinking yesterday in my worldwide tropical update, the chances for 91W to develop have decreased...

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/281330Z-290600ZMAY2005//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N2
155.4E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N6 153.3E2, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
SE OF CHUUK. RECENT ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. A 281300Z4 OBSERVATION AT CHUUK
INDICATED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A 1008 MB SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED PARA 1.B.(1) TO POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

[senorpepr]

28/2025 UTC 6.7N 151.6E T1.0/1.0 91W -- West Pacific Ocean

[senorpepr]

[senorpepr]

WTPN21 PGTW 300200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 300151ZMAY2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N7 149.2E6 TO 10.5N6 143.7E5 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292330Z9 INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N9 148.3E6. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N2
148.3E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N9 148.3E6, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SE OF GUAM. A 292057Z5 SSMI MICROWAVE PASS AND RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED AND
IS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY AND RADIAL OUTFLOW
IS IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND SURFACE INFLOW, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310200Z6.//




Dvorak estimate is now at T1.5

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like we got a tropical depression.

30/0225 UTC 8.9N 147.9E T2.0/2.0 91W

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like the convection is oreganizing nicely in the middle. With nice outflow. This system is bigger then most Atlantic storms.

[James]

Yes, it looks very impressive indeed.

[James]

It has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 04W and is expected to become a typhoon in about 3 days.

[HURAKAN]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
710 PM LST MON MAY 30 2005

GUZ001-002-003-004-301800-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
710 PM LST MON MAY 30 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMED SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS...

AT 7 PM LST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WAS FORMED ABOUT 315 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.9
DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT
FROM GUAM NORTHWARD TO SAIPAN WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W. SINCE IT IS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE
MARIANA ISLANDS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE ISSUED
LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.

STAY INFORMED BY TUNING IN TO YOUR FAVORITE NEWS MEDIA SOURCE OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. GUAM
RESIDENTS CAN DIAL 811. THE GUAM WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEBSITE IS
LOCATED AT: HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM (ALL LOWER CASE).

EVERYONE GETTING READY IN THE AREA!

[HURAKAN]

It's not very organized but a strong CDO is present near or over the presumed center or circulation.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- NEAR 9.7N6 146.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N6 146.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 10.1N2 144.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 10.3N4 143.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 10.7N8 141.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 11.0N2 139.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 12.2N5 134.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

[senorpepr]

The S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page has been updated to reflect TD 04W, including official data links from the Japan Meteorological Agency as well as information from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Tiyan, Guam.

(Note: the storm floaters are down at this time due to problems at NRL's end. No estimated time for this to be back up, but keep checking. )

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

[senorpepr]

First official advisory from JMA is out...

WTPQ20 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 09.6N 146.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 11.0N 141.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT =

Tropical Depression Four (0504/04W)... 30/18Z
9.6N 146.1E (285mi SSE of Andersen AFB, Guam)
40mph (1-min avg)
1006mb (29.71")

[cycloneye]

Mike what will be the name?

[James]

Isn't it Nesat?

[senorpepr]

Isn't it Nesat?

Yup, Nesat.

[cycloneye]

Ok thanks guys.