Cat 3 and Cat 5 in Tampa Bay Area

[Cookiely]

I certainly learned a lot about hurricanes and the Tampa Bay area in this article. Best I've ever read concerning the dangers of storm surge. I hadn't realized that we were #1 city in danger from storm surge even more than New Orleans. They posted graphics of the building and bridges and how high the surge would be for Cat 3 and Cat 5. It looked like three stories of Tampa General would be under water. Unreal! There is a couple in the article who are moving to Tallahassee from Punta Gorda so they would be safe? Is Tallahassee immune to hurricanes or were they joking??
May 29, 2005

Stuck In Harm's Way
By BAIRD HELGESON and NEIL JOHNSON
The Tampa Tribune


TAMPA - Frank and Elsa Pischke are a textbook example of what not to do in a hurricane.
The Port Charlotte couple had a beautiful home overlooking the Peace River when Charley, last summer's first and most powerful hurricane to hit Florida, surprised forecasters and headed straight for their home.

Elsa Pischke, 68, dismissed phone calls from friends and loved ones telling them to flee.

``Our home was strong,'' she said. ``We were excited about it. We couldn't wait to see what would happen.''

What happened was that a tornado on the leading edge of the storm raced up the Peace River and tore the roof off their home. They watched as its contents turned into a soupy stew.

The Pischkes took shelter in a tiny bathroom at the back of the home. Frank Pischke fought to hold the door shut as his wife huddled and prayed for more than an hour.

``It was too late,'' Elsa Pischke said this month, standing on the bare foundation of what was once their home. ``We had nowhere to go.''

Next time, they say, they will head to safer ground.

The Pischkes were not injured, but their story highlights a series of potentially deadly problems with hurricane evacuation in Florida: The storms are never predictable, and they can outrun even the best evacuation plans, putting thousands of Floridians in harm's way.

Sometimes, the best government evacuation plans are foiled by residents' naivete or cavalier attitudes.

This is important to consider as this year's hurricane season begins Wednesday and forecasters say conditions are ripe for another active six months.

Changing forecasts mixed with inadequate evacuation routes are potentially deadly for residents of Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Manatee counties.

Had a storm like Charley hit the Tampa Bay region, experts say, lost lives and property damage could have been catastrophic: The region is among the hardest in the nation to evacuate.

Only New Orleans ranks higher in the number of people who could die in a massive storm. The Bay area is harder to evacuate and more prone to storm surge.

A Category 5 hurricane - the most dangerous - heading northeast in the Gulf of Mexico is the scenario forecasters fear most. That could send South Florida evacuees north, flooding Tampa-area roads, hotels and motels. Add to that Tampa Bay area evacuees, and emergency managers say it could take 105 hours for all to reach safety.

Forecasters can give only 36 to 48 hours' notice to evacuate.

Even without southwest Florida evacuees, Tampa Bay area residents would require 57 hours to reach safety.

Earlier evacuation orders could give people more time, but a hurricane's track three days in advance can be off by 600 miles.

``That's the whole coast of Florida,'' said Larry Gispert, head of Hillsborough County Emergency Management.

Many of the area's 1.5 million potential evacuees could be held hostage by clogged roads, stuck in a region uniquely vulnerable to storm surge and potentially short on shelters.

Thousands of people could be trapped in makeshift refuges, forced to abandon evacuation plans. Injuries and fatalities could increase dramatically if a large number of residents have no place to go or lack the means to leave.

Consider this: Downtown Tampa could be under more than 25 feet of water if the nastiest Category 5 hurricane hit the area. Apollo Beach could be under 23 feet and Bayshore Boulevard could be under 24 feet.

So far, Tampa has been lucky. More than 30 tropical storms or hurricanes have come near the Tampa Bay area in the past 112 years, according to the National Weather Service. Most were small. Hurricane Donna, which swept through in 1960, was the last Category 4 storm to come within 50 miles of Tampa. No Category 5 storm has come close.


Storm Surge Is Key Danger

The potential death toll should a major storm hit forces emergency management officials to consider how many body bags and freezer trucks would be needed.

``If we have a major landfalling hurricane hit the Tampa Bay area, the potential for large loss of life is great,'' Gispert said.

Emergency managers urge evacuation because of storm surge, not wind. Drowning is the top cause of death in hurricanes.

Storm surge is a large dome of water - it can be 50 miles wide - that sweeps across the coastline near where the eye of the hurricane makes landfall.

The surge, enhanced by the hammering of breaking waves, acts like a giant bulldozer sweeping everything in its path. Storm surge can crush the sturdiest homes and shift cars around like seashells.

Water would fill the streets faster than people could run.

The Gulf of Mexico's gradually sloping seafloor off Tampa Bay puts the region among those at highest risk for storm surge and coastal flooding in the nation, the Federal Emergency Management Agency said.

In evacuation planning, the coastal counties are divided into five zones based on risk. The closer the water, the higher the risk.

When evacuation is ordered - with its enormous political, economic and safety-related concerns - much of the decision hinges on the forecast.

The forecast, even with today's sophisticated storm tracking, is a combination of science and interpretation.

The paths of hurricanes heading toward Tampa also are the most difficult to predict.

These storms curve, arcing up the Gulf of Mexico, said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

``Those are very, very difficult to forecast,'' he said. It's sort of like getting one chance to hit a major-league curveball.


Inadequate Roads

Once an evacuation is ordered, time-pressed residents are at the mercy of a road system left cramped by Florida's long love affair with development.

Nearly 1,000 people move to the state every day, officials estimate, essentially adding the equivalent of Tampa's population to the state every year.

Florida's roadways have not kept pace.

With more than 600,000 people in the four counties' coastal areas to evacuate for even the weakest of hurricanes, the Tampa Bay region's roads can't handle the traffic, emergency management officials said.

For example, only two bridges, a causeway and two land routes lead from Pinellas County into Hillsborough County. With a Category 5 hurricane, up to 614,000 evacuees could be trying to use these routes at once.

``It's barely adequate for day-to-day traffic. Put a massive amount of traffic on it, and it crunches,'' Gispert said.

More troubling is that evacuation scenarios rely on seamless motoring, with no roads blocked by construction or stalled vehicles.

William and Gloria Babuschak experienced how easily the plan can go awry as they fled their home in Sebastian to avoid Hurricane Frances last summer.

Three hours into the bumper-to-bumper journey, their 1997 Mercury Grand Marquis burst into flames on State Road 60, one of the east- west thoroughfares for Tampa motorists.

Traffic stopped for miles, as the car burned and Frances roared toward the Atlantic Coast.


Fleeing A Category 5

An evacuation for a Category 5 hurricane could put more than 595,000 vehicles onto eastbound roads, many unable to handle 1,300 vehicles an hour under the best circumstances.

``We have a problem at 5 o'clock every day,'' said Betti Johnson, evacuation planner for the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council.

Lanes could be reversed to ease the flow of vehicles.

The governor can order all lanes of Interstate 4 open to eastbound traffic if a major storm approaches, which could nearly double the number of cars the interstate can carry.

The action is untested in Florida, however, and would come with risks.

It would require a hefty price in manpower when law enforcement is already thin. Also, it takes six to eight hours to set up barricades and clear westbound lanes of traffic before the flow could be reversed.

Here's the nightmare evacuation experts envision:

Northbound traffic on Interstate 75 slows to a crawl, especially at the Pasco County interchanges with state roads 52 and 54, which empty on roads that eventually narrow to two lanes.

Every fender bender, flat tire or overheated engine backs up traffic for miles.

Drivers abandon the interstates, hitting county and state roads, even local streets.

Moving at roughly 12 mph, the storm is making better time than most motorists.

As the lines of cars slowly ooze inland, people find no refuge in filled hotels and turn back to the roads.

Outer rain bands, 100 miles from the storm's powerful center, begin to dump heavy rain. Gusts rile the Bay and waves crash against causeways, splashing into the roads.

Fuel begins to run out. The threat of a hurricane can halt deliveries to the Port of Tampa and cut off the gasoline supply for 100 miles.

With traffic crawling, the Florida Highway Patrol halts access to the interstate system three hours before 40 mph winds are expected to hit.

It will take that long to clear vehicles already on the highways without adding more traffic.

Pinellas people who haven't made it across the bridges are turned back to seek shelter in their county.

Stranded motorists are sent to the closest public shelter that still has room. If there is none, the evacuees are taken to a refuge of last resort - any available building. These could be stores, offices or even parking garages, any place that provides more protection than a car.

``It's literally just to ride out the storm,'' said Gary Vickers, director of emergency management in Pinellas.

St. Petersburg would be an island by the time the hurricane's storm surge crests. A strip of land from Palm Harbor to south of Belleair will be about all that isn't flooded.

``We plan to squeeze as many people as possible into the shelters,'' Vickers said.


Few Use Shelters

Some studies done during last year's storms indicate few people are inclined to use public shelters, said David Crisp, with the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

``Most people go visit friends, neighbors or relatives out of the evacuation zone,'' he said.

That could account for the few Pinellas County residents who went to public shelters during Charley, he said.

Projections were that nearly 130,000 people could seek refuge, but three hours before the storm 9,000 had showed up.

This part of the evacuation plan is particularly troubling for new residents, many of them far from families and without a network of friends and relatives in safe places.

Staying in an evacuation zone, however, is the deadliest option.

``They are gambling with their lives,'' Vickers said. ``If they lose, we'll have to try and find them with search and rescue or body recovery.''

The biggest problem, Vickers said, ``is people who think they'll wait until the last minute.''

Some never leave at all.

A study by Florida State University showed 47 percent of the people in low-lying areas ordered to evacuate during Charley did not.

Michael and Crystal Nantell, of Port Charlotte, didn't have time to leave.

For days, forecasts had the storm pointed 100 miles north, toward Tampa.

Then came the wind and driving rain, as the storm changed course and left less than an hour to take cover.

Crystal, who was eight months pregnant, felt terror as the walls of their frame home began to heave as though they were breathing.

``We would have evacuated if we could have,'' said Michael, 32. ``We never had any warning.''

Given warning, the Nantells and their four children easily could have gone to the home of a friend or family member. Instead, they were hiding under piles of carpet in a hallway as Charley's 145-mph winds shattered windows and ripped off part of their roof.

They consider it a small miracle that Charley didn't bring a storm surge to flood the canal behind their home and further put their lives in danger.

Others pay heed and evacuate early but have no specific destination or plan.

``People think they'll jump in a car and go someplace. They're going nowhere. They'll be stuck in worse than rush- hour traffic,'' Vickers said.

As many evacuees learned last year, heading out with no plan can be a recipe for aggravation and unexpected expense. Many found high hotel costs, soaring fuel prices and limited supplies.


Mobile Home Dangers

Dan Schlemmer thought he would die in Hurricane Frances.

He knew the instant he jumped from his chair to brace himself against the convulsing walls of his mobile home near the Palm Beach County line that this night could be his last. Nothing in his 42 years had prepared him for the terror he felt when he saw the walls ripple like waves. He braced himself in a corner of his mobile home in a desperate stand.

``I realized at that moment that I had made a terrible, terrible decision to stay,'' Schlemmer said the next day.

Schlemmer tried to evacuate, but he waited too long and the storm overwhelmed him.

Nowhere in the nation is there more risk for widespread mobile home death and damage in a hurricane than in the Tampa Bay area.

The U.S. Census Bureau reports Florida has 850,000 mobile homes, more than any other state in the nation. More than 2.5 million residents - about 12.5 percent - live in them. Many are poor or elderly, the most likely to be storm victims.

All 67 Florida counties have mandatory evacuation orders for mobile homes during hurricanes. Even the most ardent mobile home advocates urge residents to flee when a major storm looms.

``Anyone who decides to ignore public officials' call to seek appropriate shelter is taking their lives into their own hands,'' said Bruce Savage, vice president of public affairs for the Manufactured Housing Institute, which represents 500 manufactured home companies and several state associations.

The Tampa Bay area has the largest concentration of mobile homes in the state, according to a Tribune analysis of state records last year.

About 85 percent of the region's mobile homes were built before tougher strength standards were implemented after Hurricane Andrew destroyed nearly every mobile home in its path in 1992.

Worse, few mobile home parks have hurricane shelters. Some owners don't want them out of fear they could be sued if someone were injured during a storm.

Many mobile home owners say they don't evacuate because there is nowhere to go, and they can't afford $50 a night for a motel.


Finding Safety

Getting everyone to safety does not need to take as long, planners say.

People should know whether they live in an evacuation zone, and which one. They should have a plan and an evacuation kit.

If an evacuation is ordered, they should leave quickly and know where they are going. It doesn't have to be far.

Evacuees need only reach an area outside the zones ordered evacuated to be safe from the storm surge, the major danger. Then find a place that will withstand the wind.

``If you have a friend in Brandon, go there,'' Gispert said.

Counties will evacuate people from their homes who register ahead of time and need special medical help.

Public and school buses deploy to pick up the more than 100,000 people living in evacuation zones who have no car. In Pinellas, anyone without a car or unable to drive can call the local city hall or fire station to arrange a ride.

In Hillsborough, HARTline buses will run special routes that end at public shelters.

Agencies that work with the region's more than 8,000 homeless spread word of the evacuation. Police and outreach workers try to round up people and get them to shelters, often the same ones that are opened for cold weather.

In Pinellas, buses operate from locations in St. Petersburg and Clearwater to take homeless people to shelters.

Still, many people in the region decide not to evacuate. The likelihood of a hurricane hitting the Tampa area is statistically rare, so skeptics often are rewarded with a meteorological ``I told you so.''

Some simply hate the aggravation and expense.

Many are like John Bird and his wife, Betty, of Punta Gorda.

They weathered their storm in their tiny bathroom, huddled with a weather radio. They only had time to store their most prized possessions in their clothes dryer: financial papers, a couple of Bibles, a few nice shirts and his late grandfather's eyeglasses.

After the worst winds, they emerged to find large pieces of a nearby building in their yard.

``We won't evacuate if another one comes,'' John Bird said recently, recalling the damage.

The Vietnam War veteran didn't even rank Charley among his top 20 scariest moments.

``We were fine,'' Bird said. ``There's really no reason for us to go.''

That said, Bird and his wife are selling their Punta Gorda home.

They plan to move to Tallahassee, far from the Gulf of Mexico.


Reporter Doug Stanley contributed to this report. Reporter Baird Helgeson can be reached at (813) 259-7668. Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (352) 544-5214.

This story can be found at: http://www.tampatrib.com/MGBKB74PA9E.html

[SouthernWx]

One of my biggest concerns for the Tampa Bay region is the fact virtually no one living there has ever experienced the core region (eyewall) of a major hurricane.....almost 3 million residents, many of whom live on low ground or the many beautiful barrier islands between New Port Richey and Siesta Key.

The last major hurricane to strike Tampa, St Pete, Bradenton, or Clearwater was 84 years ago; the last to strike Sarasota over 60 years ago. There are so many folks who've lived along the Suncoast for decades who even their parents can't remember the last major hurricane. It's almost inevitable for many folks to become apathetic....complacent, with an "big hurricanes won't hit here, they never have...they always miss Tampa" attitude.

The only problem is they haven't always missed Tampa, and when the next big hurricane does impact Tampa Bay, the factors which cause such large and destructive storm surges haven't changed....not since 1846, 1848, or 1921. The only thing to chance since the last major hurricane in Tampa Bay is a massive population explosion....with nice, expensive homes being built on canals only a couple feet above sea level; with hi rise condos and apartments built on barrier islands and sandspits less than 10' above sea level.

It's just a matter of time until a powerful hurricane doesn't miss Tampa Bay....and the massive winds and storm surge sweep the Suncoast clean

Dr Neil Frank said in 1979 "the Tampa Bay region is my worst hurricane disaster nightmare; just too many people in harms way, not enough time to evacuate them all, and an extemely dangerous storm surge threat". Some say, "but Neil, there have only been three major hurricanes in Tampa's history" My response "That's correct, but man, it only takes one"

[StormChasr]

And, maybe there will never be the "killer cane" that is described above. Maybe it is all fear and hype. One never knows..........

[Brent]

There will be one day... we may all be long gone, but it will happen. It's only a matter of time.

[Derek Ortt]

the odds would state that Tampa should be free and clear of anymore major canes for many years as the return time between majors on the west coast between Donna and Charley was 44 years.

That said, as we found in Gabrielle, a cat 1 can cause serious issues and a cat 2 will be devastating

[cyclonaut]

And, maybe there will never be the "killer cane" that is described above. Maybe it is all fear and hype. One never knows..........

Maybe it is maybe it is'nt but last time I checked there is still a hurricane season in Tampa so its wise to know what to do just in case.

[StormChasr]

Maybe it is maybe it is'nt but last time I checked there is still a hurricane season in Tampa so its wise to know what to do just in case.

Those of us in Florida know exactly what to do.

[scogor]

One of the best decisions we made last year was leaving Sarasota for Gainesville late Thursday night rather than waiting for Friday morning as Charley churned its way northward. Having seen the devastation in Charlotte County, we know we dodged a major bullet in Sarasota and I would not have wanted to "ride out" that storm, even though our home is several miles inland...definitely do not wait until the last minute, especially if you prefer the comfort of an inland hotel to the conditions that you will find in a shelter. And for you mobile home dwellers--a mandatory evacuation order should NOT be ignored!!

[Lebowsky]

I'm getting out of town if anything comes remotely close to the Tampa Bay area, had enough last year to last me a lifetime.

At least if you are far inland you don't have to worry about the storm surge.