More ominous than the number of storms.

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1761
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:
Contact OuterBanker

More ominous than the number of storms.

#1 Postby OuterBanker » Tue May 31, 2005 9:16 am

In Dr. Gray's May 31 abstract not only did the number of hurricanes raise so did the landfall probability. Across the board the numbers rose dramatically since the Dec. 1 forecast. Last Dec. we all thought that this might just be a less intense year because at that time net tropical activity was predicted to be only 115%, now it has skyrocketed to 170 % which seems to be one of his highest predictions. But what could be even more ominous is the overall landfall probability has gone up to 77 % (1.48 x average), gulf coast at 44 % (1.47 x average) and east coast 59 % (1.90 x average). Another scary year. We seem to be only halfway through the THC cycle, to think that this can occur for the next ten years is also frightening.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... /june2005/
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Tue May 31, 2005 9:41 am

What I find the most scary is that usually the real numbers are over his prediction, if that proves true this year, OH MY GOD!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#3 Postby skysummit » Tue May 31, 2005 9:47 am

Yes, he does usualy "under estimate". We may be in for big trouble. Get your vienna sausages ready!!!!
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#4 Postby Scorpion » Tue May 31, 2005 9:47 am

Yep, theres gonna be many long tracking nights and chatroom sessions. Cant wait! :D
0 likes   
Top
cyclonaut

#5 Postby cyclonaut » Tue May 31, 2005 10:10 am

Be ready yaul!

Its sonna get ugly! :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#6 Postby southerngale » Tue May 31, 2005 12:19 pm

skysummit wrote:Yes, he does usualy "under estimate". We may be in for big trouble. Get your vienna sausages ready!!!!


They're right by the grill, next to the SPAM.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#7 Postby dhweather » Tue May 31, 2005 12:53 pm

The New "South Beach Diet"

1) Have a major hurricane level your area

2) Nothing to eat but water to drink, when available

3) Easily lose 10 pounds in one week
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drudd1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 466
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 4:33 am
Location: Chuluota, FL
Contact:
Contact drudd1

#8 Postby drudd1 » Tue May 31, 2005 1:11 pm

If we get hit here with another three this year, we won't have any trees left.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#9 Postby Brent » Tue May 31, 2005 1:16 pm

drudd1 wrote:If we get hit here with another three this year, we won't have any trees left.


You mean there are trees left? :eek: :lol:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, HurricaneRyan and 515 guests