12Z GFDL - Hancock Count MS/SE LA, 75KTS

[dhweather]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Brent]

That's right over your head there.

[dhweather]

I know! I'm sure MGC and HurryKane are excited too!

[Rainband]

I say it's unrealistic. The model shows the west coast of florida under TS conditions. I don't think thats going to happen.

[melhow]

Rainband, you beat me to it. I was going to mention that we'd see TS conditions here. Hmmm...

[Brent]

It seems to be an outlier.

[Rainband]

Wow than that means this thing may be a big rain maker for us.

[Derek Ortt]

In the official output, it is carried as a tropical storm as the atcf gfdl data is reduced by the 80% (but 61KT with a 978mb slp does not make much sense, the 75KT is more reasonable

[melhow]

It seems to be an outlier.

Well, if that's the case, this track is the farthest west, yes? Which would mean that TS force winds on the other tracks east of the GFDL would extend farther east. So the west coast could very well see TS winds, correct?

[mf_dolphin]

The 75kts winds are at 950mb. The note at the bottom of the page says surface winds would be 15-25% less.

[Air Force Met]

The 75kts winds are at 950mb. The note at the bottom of the page says surface winds would be 15-25% less.

..and I think all of it is too strong. It's already 5-6 mb too low and Arlene will probably still be hovering around 1002-1003 by 00Z tonight...which means it will be almost 10 MB too low.

So...I think the GFDL is having some "intensity" issues.

[Droop12]

I agree AFM and Im not so sure about the track either. Seems alittle to far west. Im becoming concerned with all the models switching east. Does that mean the ridge isnt being seen well by these models or are they on to something? I guess we'll see soon. But I dont see Arlene moving due north through the Gulf. Need some input pro's.

[dhweather]

I personally think the GFDL is too far west and too strong.

[Stormcenter]

Well like someone else just posted the models don't seem to be in the same agreememt as they were with the previous runs. I'll personally stick with my MS/AL landfall. I think SE La. is too far west and anywhere in Florida panhandle is too far east. Oh well I guess as always I could and probably will be wrong, LOL!!!!

[dixiebreeze]

The funny thing about GOM systems I've noted over the years, is that many tend to wobble around for some time before hitting their ultimate track. And, sometimes, they gain strength while they're making up their minds.

[bevgo]

Go figure. I didn't check for the past couple of days and find we have a storm. I missed several hours of fun plotting. At least I found out early--LOL. Here on the MS gulf coast I am really not going to stick it out even if it is just a TS if it comes this way. Since I am not working right now I may have an unplanned visit to see MOM. But maybe not. My daughter who always said she was not going to leave now plans to go for any threat since she has a child to protect. We do tend to get wiser when we have kids--LOL! Hopefully there will be no development and we (meaning anyone along the gulf coast of the US) will only get some stormy weather. Nice early start to the season though. Happy hunting!