New Orleans AFD 6/9/2005 3:41 PM

[dhweather]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 092055
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SLOW MOVING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WILL CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS FROM NORTH GEORGIA TO SOUTH LOUISIANA AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE OF TS ARLENE CLOSE TO THE YUCATAN STRAITS. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GULF HAS INCREASED THE WIND FIELD. WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK FROM TPC IN PLAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FIELD WILL BE THE STRONGEST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TS ARLENE.
ERGO...STRONG EAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PUSH WATER ALONG EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FACING SHORE LINES AND TIDAL LAKES STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY. WILL MENTION TIDES ABOVE NORMAL WITH CWF THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HAD TO UP RAIN CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE FORWARD SPEED MAY CUT DOWN SOME PROBLEMS WITH
FLOODING...BUT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER MS COAST. WILL UP MEAN AREAL
PRECIP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI UP TO 2 INCHES FOR A START FOR SATURDAY.
EXPECTING TS TO ACCELERATE NORTH DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM WASHINGTON TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A COL IS EXPECTED TO SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY NEXT MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCE OUTSIDE OF
SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 89 69 85 / 20 50 40 60
BTR 71 90 71 88 / 20 50 40 40
MSY 75 89 76 86 / 20 50 40 60
GPT 73 88 73 84 / 20 50 60 80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.