Maximum NHC sustained winds before landfall

#1 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 7:58 pm

What will be the maximum sustained winds for Arlene, per the NHC
advisories, before she makes landfall.

kevin · #2 Postby **kevin** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 7:59 pm

I think 55mph

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #3 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:00 pm

I think if the new center forms under the large area of convection. Then if it starts really getting its act together. I will say 80 mph. If this is not a reformation of the system then the system dies with the old center then nothing.

#4 Postby **Pebbles** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:06 pm

55mph!

Christine

I smile because i have no idea what's going on!

2005 guess: 15/10/6
<----- Feel free to Rub the cute LUCKY Pebbles belly!

AussieMark · #5 Postby **AussieMark** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:15 pm

I say about 50. but it doesn't need to be packing strong winds to be damaging. Over course of time there have been numerous damaging tropical storms only 1 was retired tho.

2001: Allison ($5 Billion)
1998: Frances ($500 Million)
1989: Allison ($500 Million)
1994: Alberto ($500 Million)
1979: Claudette ($400 Million)

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:18 pm

65 mph IMO

#7 Postby **Lowpressure** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:22 pm

55 mph sounds good.

dougjp · #8 Postby **dougjp** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:38 pm

I find it pretty hard to go off what the models and forecasts are saying on this one. The storm is too close - too much information and analysis - too much model consistency.

Although in the short term, something keeps me looking at that dry air which came in from the west over the Yucatan since about 3 PM, and the proximity of it to the center. Plus a combination of lack of convection west of center for some time now, current flattening and lessening of the convection to more east/west from a circular motion coming around from the south east earlier in the day, nothing much in the way of convection coming in behind it etc. So I'll play it safe and vote tomorrow morning! :wink:

SouthernWx · #9 Postby **SouthernWx** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 8:49 pm

Minimal hurricane IMO....75-80 mph....possibly a little stronger IF the southerly jet funneling between the trough to the west and ridge to the east remains west of the storm track....thus enhancing the outflow at the top of the storm.

PW

My latest analysis:
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx ... calWeather

#10 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:12 pm

SouthernWx wrote:Minimal hurricane IMO....75-80 mph....possibly a little stronger IF the southerly jet funneling between the trough to the west and ridge to the east remains west of the storm track....thus enhancing the outflow at the top of the storm.

PW

My latest analysis:
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx ... calWeather

Perry - great analysis and music to boot!

DoctorHurricane2003 · #11 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:18 pm

I just want to note the following:

The following wind speeds in miles per hour will never show up in a regular advisory:

55 MPH
95 MPH
130 MPH
170 MPH

However, they do occasionally show up in intermediate advisories. Why? The Regular Public Advisory is based off of the forecast advisory which is in knots. There is a conversion factor associated with this, KT * 1.15 = MPH

So, some MPH numbers do not get transferred:

45 KT = 50 MPH, 50 KT = 60 MPH
80 KT = 90 MPH, 85 KT = 100 MPH
110 KT = 125 MPH, 115 KT = 135 MPH*
145 KT = 165 MPH, 150 KT = 175 MPH

*It actually comes out to 132.23, but is rounded up to 135 because 132 is within category 4 range, whereas 130 is still category 3.

SouthernWx · #12 Postby **SouthernWx** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:36 pm

dhweather wrote:
SouthernWx wrote:Minimal hurricane IMO....75-80 mph....possibly a little stronger IF the southerly jet funneling between the trough to the west and ridge to the east remains west of the storm track....thus enhancing the outflow at the top of the storm.

PW

My latest analysis:
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx ... calWeather

Perry - great analysis and music to boot!

Thanks my friend...I'm glad you like it

#13 Postby **Pebbles** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:42 pm

*smacks self on forehead* DUH.. make mine 60MPH then.

Christine

I smile because i have no idea what's going on!

2005 guess: 15/10/6
<----- Feel free to Rub the cute LUCKY Pebbles belly!

#14 Postby **TSmith274** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:43 pm

If this shear doesn't slow up a little, she may not exceed 45mph. That would be good news. We shall see.

StormChasr · #15 Postby **StormChasr** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 10:20 pm

If it cuts away from the Florida trough, and scoots West, I'd say it will landfall as a Cat 1 minimal hurricane. If not, it will be in the Florida Panhandle/Alabama area and get sheared a bit and will be a 50-60 MPH tropical storm.

HurricaneBill · #16 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:39 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:I just want to note the following:

The following wind speeds in miles per hour will never show up in a regular advisory:

55 MPH
95 MPH
130 MPH
170 MPH

However, they do occasionally show up in intermediate advisories. Why? The Regular Public Advisory is based off of the forecast advisory which is in knots. There is a conversion factor associated with this, KT * 1.15 = MPH

So, some MPH numbers do not get transferred:

45 KT = 50 MPH, 50 KT = 60 MPH
80 KT = 90 MPH, 85 KT = 100 MPH
110 KT = 125 MPH, 115 KT = 135 MPH*
145 KT = 165 MPH, 150 KT = 175 MPH

*It actually comes out to 132.23, but is rounded up to 135 because 132 is within category 4 range, whereas 130 is still category 3.

The only storms I know of that are listed as peaking at 130 mph, according to Weather Underground:

Hurricane Helene 1958
Hurricane Dora 1964
Hurricane Greta 1978
Hurricane Frederic 1979
Hurricane Harvey 1981
Hurricane Debby 1982
Hurricane Diana 1984
Hurricane Claudette 1991