Arlene enters GOM via Yucatan Channel?

[Stormcenter]

Looking at this satellite loop it looks like Arlene will pass through the Yucatan Channel and enter the GOM today.
I know this is not a visible daylight loop so it may not be as accurate but I think it's pretty obvious where the center is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

You will also notice the banding developing to the North and West of the center of circulation.

[Droop12]

I just made a post about this. I noticed, and yes, its fairly obvious where the center is. I think she may be entering the gulf in a few hours. Looks to be moving NNW I'd say. A good thing to do is to rock the loop your looking at, go click on "rock" and it'll go back in forth. Gives a good idea of overall movement.

[Wpwxguy]

Looks like she'll go a little west of the forecast points right now. Don't know if that will affect the forecast or not. Click on forecast points on the bottom and you'll see.

Bill

[Wpwxguy]

Also you can see two centers orbiting one another. I'm having a meltdown.

[CajunMama]

thanks for the tip about the forecast points bill. i'd never noticed that before.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I wish that dry air would get out of there

[Wpwxguy]

Your welcome, they hid from me for quite some time. LOL

[Stormcenter]

Checkout the new convection burst developing to the NE of the center.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Normandy]

What convection burst??

EDIT....ohh.....I would advise waiting till next frame to call that a convection burst.

[Stormcenter]

What convection burst??

EDIT....ohh.....I would advise waiting till next frame to call that a convection burst.

O.K. if you insist.

[Droop12]

Yea I noticed that little flare-up too. Im waiting around till the next few frames to make sure. Unless it really blows up and encompasses the circulation, I believe it'll get sheared off in no time. Still nice to see she has a well defined center now.

[Droop12]

Also looking at the WV loop, you can see the little funnel and the flow from the SSE that will steer Arlene. Also notice how the Gulf, at least the portion Arlene will move over is moistening up more so then than it has been.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wind shear over the system is only 10 to 15 knots. Half way favable. In a upper high is building. Its the dry air!!! I think once this system starts heating up the atmosphere around it then boom!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Wpwxguy]

It sure seems that way, but we just gotten started with a real viable center of circulation and it does appear to be a little west of their forecast points on the Infrared ch.2 loop. I won't get into model talk but I think they still have the bias to the right that they had last year. Don't know, I know this is the first storm so they've got lots of time to prove themselves. IMO

Bill

[Rainband]

Unfortunately we are on the wet side of the storm

[Wpwxguy]

I don't foresee Louisiana getting much out of Arlene. She may come close, but your right ...........the right side of the storm is the wet side. Hope you need the rain over there, because alot of Floridians will get it.